# Let Warmoth catch their breath, folks!



## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)




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## Paul M (Mar 27, 2015)

This describes the bicycle industry as well. A few more industries too, I'd wager, (pools/jacuzzi/home reno). I work in bicycles, so I live this chaos daily. 

Sadly, I'm also waiting for some necks from Warmoth so @Milkman can finish this:









The Peart


After a bit of a hiatus (Covid) I'm starting back up with a new build. I do this to help gain exposure for my daughter Amanda Lynn who creates the art. This one is commissioned and I hope to have it completed within a month or so. The next main task is to prep for clear coating. I'm also in...




www.guitarscanada.com





I've been told they should ship next week. My breath is not held.


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## jbealsmusic (Feb 12, 2014)

This is more or less what we've experienced. Combine a massively unpredictable boost in sales with lengthy factory delays, and delays at the ports, and it's impossible to keep up. Everyone I speak with in the industry (with a good online presence) is experiencing the same thing, from competitors to suppliers and commercial customers. They're all scrambling to catch up. And, like he says at 4:01, most places seeing this wild boost in sales aren't planning big expansions to deal with it because of the possibility of it all going away as soon as things open back up and people start spending their money elsewhere again. They're basically all just trying to hold it together as long as possible.


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## sulphur (Jun 2, 2011)

Barber Electronics had an issue sourcing enclosures for a while and ceased production.
For a while, he wasn't sure what the prospects were, it seemed bleak at the time.
I think there was a problem with the enclosures and the raw material to make them.

He eventually found a way and is back producing product again.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

The global supply chain is impacted in many, probably most manufacturing categories.

Right now the automakers (at least those I deal with) are saying they can sell as many cars as they can build. But, it's feast or famine, hurry up and wait et cetera.

They'll go great guns for a few weeks, OT on Saturdays and Sundays, and then run low on critical components (almost anything) and cancel the OT PLUS a couple of Fridays.

It's really herky jerky at the moment.

At the same time companies are moving manufacturing to try and avoid tariffs, Covid is impacting staffing.....

This will all take time to sort out and who knows how things will look when the dust settles?


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Paul M said:


> This describes the bicycle industry as well. A few more industries too, I'd wager, (pools/jacuzzi/home reno). I work in bicycles, so I live this chaos daily.
> 
> Sadly, I'm also waiting for some necks from Warmoth so @Milkman can finish this:
> 
> ...


Some things are worth waiting for. Those necks are going to be beautiful.

These days if time is a factor you had better be checking on hand inventory before placing orders. There are almost always choices. Adapt, overcome.


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## Paul Running (Apr 12, 2020)

Nice of Mr. Warmoth to explain the company's business in the last year and mention an unpredictable future...good pick mhammer.


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## numb41 (Jul 13, 2009)

Milkman said:


> The global supply chain is impacted in many, probably most manufacturing categories.
> 
> Right now the automakers (at least those I deal with) are saying they can sell as many cars as they can build. But, it's feast or famine, hurry up and wait et cetera.
> 
> ...


This is exactly what's happening in the industry I play in also. As Milkman says, its not exclusive to one or two industries, it's the world we live in currently.

The bright side (for the companies) is what they're not talking about. Exponential profit margin increases (unless you're asleep at the wheel). So, I don't feel too bad for them...


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## Jim DaddyO (Mar 20, 2009)

Pretty much the state of affairs across manufacturing all over. Expected slow downs so they slowed production, plants shut due to outbreaks, then unexpected exploding demand. Just look at the price of a 2 x 4 today for instance. Combine that with the change over the years to "lean" manufacturing and JIT systems and you have a perfect storm.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Jim DaddyO said:


> Pretty much the state of affairs across manufacturing all over. Expected slow downs so they slowed production, plants shut due to outbreaks, then unexpected exploding demand. Just look at the price of a 2 x 4 today for instance. Combine that with the change over the years to "lean" manufacturing and JIT systems and you have a perfect storm.


Actually that's a very good point.

JIT doesn't work all that great when this kind of disruption happens.

I understand the cost benefits in reducing WIP and all that, but when something goes wrong it can be expensive or slow to recover.

When you consider the cost per minute of causing a line down at an auto plant, flying a few boxes to a plant at the cost of a few thousand is a no-brainer, but if we kept some inventory....


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## numb41 (Jul 13, 2009)

* "When you consider the cost per minute of causing a line down at an auto plant, flying a few boxes to a plant at the cost of a few thousand is a no-brainer, but if we kept some inventory...."*

100% my opinion also.

Alot of it boils down to who's running your business (in my experience). The front-line, experienced career minded, sales oriented people, or the finance kid that's interested in inventory turns and cash-to-cash vs healthy stock levels. But I digress...


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## Jim DaddyO (Mar 20, 2009)

Milkman said:


> When you consider the cost per minute of causing a line down at an auto plant, flying a few boxes to a plant


I have worked consecutive days on the line where parts were being packaged directly off the line and going into a van to be brought to the airport to be flown to a waiting plant. That is usually the time something breaks catastrophically on the line or something wanders out of spec and the issue is hard to track down. Murphy having his law and all that.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Jim DaddyO said:


> I have worked consecutive days on the line where parts were being packaged directly off the line and going into a van to be brought to the airport to be flown to a waiting plant. That is usually the time something breaks catastrophically on the line or something wanders out of spec and the issue is hard to track down. Murphy having his law and all that.


Where JIT gets completely nuts is in the manufacture of car seats. Those are sequenced to arrive at the car plants and go straight to the line to coordinate perfectly with the colour and trim level of the car they are paired with.

So the seats they make today will be on cars tonight or tomorrow.


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## Mooh (Mar 7, 2007)

Patience is a virtue, my grandmother would say. She lived 99 years, most of it legally blind, so she knew a little something about waiting for things.

Seeds. The bride is waiting for seeds.


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## vadsy (Dec 2, 2010)

these threads are a nice update, heads up on some things harder to find while other things you already have are maybe going up in value.

just got out of a meeting, bringing oilfield parts from China has almost doubled in cost for us. literally a container shipment now costs $8600 while it used to be $4400,,,. and,,. theyre having a tougher time sourcing raw materials so I can't wait for the next price increase. refurbishing things out of old stock and storage is gonna be big


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## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

Among the many things this pandemic has nudged us to rethink, supply-chains are moving into the spotlight. A year ago, I was saying that I thought it would spark a trend towards greater self-sufficiency. Not that we would start doing or making EVERYTHING ourselves; I mean, I can't see globalization going away, and industry is not going to start baking their own bread. But supply-chains were becoming unpredictable and unreliable, suggesting some sort of backup plan would be needed, rather than assuming an uninterruptible supply of component/material X from country Y forever and ever.


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