# Sniping ebay auctions



## sambonee (Dec 20, 2007)

So I counted on my previously trustworthy snipeswipe.com to manage my ebay bidding. 

I was $200 over the Ending bid and it missed it! I'm really disappointed. It was a rare el degas DC LP special. Quite rare. I want it bad. 

Anyone else have this occur? It's never let me down before?


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## StevieMac (Mar 4, 2006)

I've never used such a service before and rarely get involved with "auctions" anymore. When I do visit feebay, I stick to the Buy-It-Now listings almost exclusively. Sorry to hear that sniping didn't work for you.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

I almost never use E-bay anymore, mostly because prices seem to have risen in much the same way as they have in pawn shops.

Also, I've had items "sniped" at the last second a few times. I got tired of that.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

sambonee said:


> So I counted on my previously trustworthy snipeswipe.com to manage my ebay bidding.
> 
> I was $200 over the Ending bid and it missed it! I'm really disappointed. It was a rare el degas DC LP special. Quite rare. I want it bad.
> 
> Anyone else have this occur? It's never let me down before?


Question? if 5 guys are using snipeswipe.com on the same item, who wins?


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## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

Hellecasters guitarist Will Ray writes columns about his e-bay purchases and regularly describes his swiping strategies.


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## NB_Terry (Feb 2, 2006)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Question? if 5 guys are using snipeswipe.com on the same item, who wins?


The bidder who set the highest maximum price.


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Question? if 5 guys are using snipeswipe.com on the same item, who wins?


The 4 who don't get it probably.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

You do realize that ebay has that function built in. It's called maximum bid. In other words when you bid just put in the highest amount you are willing to spend. If it goes beyond that the timing really does not matter, its gone beyond what you are willing to spend. I would therefore submit to you that sipeswipe or any other service of its nature is pure nonsense


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

The difference is, Ebay will immediately apply the next available bid level, up to and including your maximum you've set as other people bid. It's in their best interests to sell as high as possible. The off-Ebay sites wait to make the next available bid level, up to and including your maximum, until the last second of the Auction. Hence the sniping. I'm not sure if my convoluted way of explaining this makes sense.


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## Budda (May 29, 2007)

Find one on reverb?


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

JBFairthorne said:


> The difference is, Ebay will immediately apply the next available bid level, up to and including your maximum you've set as other people bid. It's in their best interests to sell as high as possible. The off-Ebay sites wait to make the next available bid level, up to and including your maximum, until the last second of the Auction. Hence the sniping. I'm not sure if my convoluted way of explaining this makes sense.


I get what you are saying but to me it makes no sense to do that. When you are looking at buying something you have to decide how much you are willing t spend on it. If you have a figure in mind and apply it to the bid there is no sense in waiting around until the end of the auction. If its going to go higher than what you are willing to spend, time is not a factor. On the other had if you have to have it then put in an initial bid of $500 more than its worth, eBay is only going to bid it up to the next increment anyway, it does not use your full bid amount just because you entered it.

Years ago I got a Rockman XP212 off ebay. One of maybe 20 made. I had to have it. I put in a bid $1000 more than it was worth on the high end. I won it. Snipers eliminated. It never got to the $1000 extra I bid but nobody came near it.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

Well, if I'm willing to spend $800 that doesn't mean I wouldn't prefer to spend $700 if it were possible.

And no it doesn't use your full bid amount but it does increase the likelihood of entering a bidding war (up to your max) with another potential pre-set max bidder, getting to one bidder's max within seconds. Ultimately this means you have a better chance of paying less than your max by using an outside site. Really, the most telling fact is that it's in Ebay's best interest in raising the current winning bid to the max possible, so setting up their pre-bid system in a way that achieves that goal is a no brainer. An off-site system's goal is to get you the lowest bid that will win (up to your max).


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

JBFairthorne said:


> Well, if I'm willing to spend $800 that doesn't mean I wouldn't prefer to spend $700 if it were possible.
> 
> And no it doesn't use your full bid amount but it does increase the likelihood of entering a bidding war (up to your max) with another potential pre-set max bidder, getting to one bidder's max within seconds. Ultimately this means you have a better chance of paying less than your max by using an outside site. Really, the most telling fact is that it's in Ebay's best interest in raising the current winning bid to the max possible, so setting up their pre-bid system in a way that achieves that goal is a no brainer. An off-site system's goal is to get you the lowest bid that will win (up to your max).


It still boils down to what you are willing to spend. No matter how you slice it or deal with it. If you and I are wanting the same item what are you willing to pay? Its as simple as that. If I am willing to pay more than you, I win. There is no strategy involved beyond that. If I put in a ludicrous first bid you still have to beat it, whether that is 5 minutes in or the last second. What are you willing to spend? The OP's example is proof of that. He entered the maximum he was willing to pay. Somebody else wanted it more. Thats how it works last second or not.

Its exactly the same as a public auction. If you and I are standing in the same room, who wants it more? No difference. Eventually someone is going to say, I reached my limit, its yours. eBay is the same, there are limits to what someone will pay.

If there is a pedal on there worth $100 and I decide I will go a maximum of $150 and no more I enter $150, its now in your court. You want it outbid me. now or with one second left. If I decide I absolutely have to have it I will bid $500 now beat that. The people that normally lose auctions are the ones trying to get it for less than its worth. You need to do your research and enter the maximum you are willing to spend based on the items value and take into account it's rarity etc. you have to be willing to spend big money sometimes for a rare item.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

Maybe it just comes down to a different philosophy. Sure I have a max budget, but I'm always looking to save a dollar if I can.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

ive been let down by sniping apps before...I haven't used them very much, so I always presumed it was something I misconfigured...or perhaps a timing issue. When they leave bidding until the last 6-7 seconds, its not hard to see how a glitch somewhere along the line could result in a missed bid.

with the dollar being what it is, it rarely make sense for me to buy on ebay anymore.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Question? if 5 guys are using snipeswipe.com on the same item, who wins?


 
Answer: Snipeswipe


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

JBFairthorne said:


> Maybe it just comes down to a different philosophy. Sure I have a max budget, but I'm always looking to save a dollar if I can.


Fair enough, and we all want it for as low as possible, that goes without saying. But it boils down to how bad do you want it.


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## 4345567 (Jun 26, 2008)

__________


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

Yeah well, that is all rolled up in that "winning" mentality you often hear at an auction (which I hate). Sure they want you to feel like you "won" and play on that because people will often pay more to "win". What did they win if they have to pay for it?


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

JBFairthorne said:


> Yeah well, that is all rolled up in that "winning" mentality you often hear at an auction (which I hate). Sure they want you to feel like you "won" and play on that because people will often pay more to "win". What did they win if they have to pay for it?


reminds me of when im looking at a purchase I dont really need, and a friend or family member says "go ahead, treat yourself. you deserve it!". Of course I do. Im paying for it. I deserve everything I pay for.


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## sambonee (Dec 20, 2007)

Sniping lets the emotion and ebay preferential design out of the equation. 

On high desirability / dollar items it usually doesn't work. On sleepers it works. Because the highest bidder usually never leaves their max bid first time around. If no one else chimes in, he won't ip his max bid against himself. 

Boo hoo me. Oh well. Another 4- 5 years waiting for the next one to show up. 59 Lm special dc red. So nice. El dégas of course.


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

sambonee said:


> So I counted on my previously trustworthy snipeswipe.com to manage my ebay bidding.
> 
> I was $200 over the Ending bid and it missed it! I'm really disappointed. It was a rare el degas DC LP special. Quite rare. I want it bad.
> 
> Anyone else have this occur? It's never let me down before?


How much time before the end of the auction was your bid to be placed?


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## sambonee (Dec 20, 2007)

5 seconds I believe.


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## Guest (Jan 21, 2016)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Question? if 5 guys are using snipeswipe.com on the same item, who wins?


Outcome is completely random.



GuitarsCanada said:


> I get what you are saying but to me it makes no sense to do that. When you are looking at buying something you have to decide how much you are willing t spend on it. If you have a figure in mind and apply it to the bid there is no sense in waiting around until the end of the auction. If its going to go higher than what you are willing to spend, time is not a factor. On the other had if you have to have it then put in an initial bid of $500 more than its worth, eBay is only going to bid it up to the next increment anyway, it does not use your full bid amount just because you entered it.


I AM SO GLAD TO FINALLY MEET SOMEONE ELSE WHO THINKS THIS WAY! 

Bid the highest you're willing to pay and walk away. eBay's system takes care of the rest. Perfectly. Do that and you'll never "over pay" for something you want to buy. Perfect. Flawless.

I don't understand the irrational behaviour of humans either some times. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

sambonee said:


> 5 seconds I believe.


That may have been the issue. I've only used a similar service a few times but they caution that not enough time can cause issues in placing a bid (slow connectivity to server, high volumes etc). The recommendation (going back a few years) was a minimum of 8 seconds (IIRC).


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

iaresee said:


> Outcome is completely random.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The 5 members sniping and assuming they have the same maximum bid - the winner is the bidder that placed the most time from the end of the auction (ex. if i put a bid of $100 with 5 seconds and another bidder puts a bid of $100 with 8 seconds to go, the 8 second bidder wins).

You're assuming all buyers are equal - some snipe to profit, take advantage of less experienced buyers ( increase their bid every time the price increases as opposed to putting in a max) or less experienced sellers (don't have a reserve on a high ticket item). I would assume that sniping is not effective as it once was with auction sites being more and more mainstream.


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## Guest (Jan 21, 2016)

Alex Dann said:


> The 5 members sniping and assuming they have the same maximum bid - the winner is the bidder that placed the most time from the end of the auction (ex. if i put a bid of $100 with 5 seconds and another bidder puts a bid of $100 with 8 seconds to go, the 8 second bidder wins).


Which, for equal bids, is the same outcome you'd have gotten if both parties just bid on eBay. The third party site added zero value here.



> You're assuming all buyers are equal - some snipe to profit, take advantage of less experienced buyers ( increase their bid every time the price increases as opposed to putting in a max) or less experienced sellers (don't have a reserve on a high ticket item). I would assume that sniping is not effective as it once was with auction sites being more and more mainstream.


All the things you've described above are served equally well by simply placing the max you're willing to pay in to eBay and walking away. You'll never "overpay" if you do it like that. You'll never be outbid either because if you do lose, someone paid more than you wanted to pay anyways.

The psychology of third party "sniping" sites fascinates me. They only serve two tangible purposes:

1. They hide your interest in something. Your intent to buy at your price isn't revealed until the last second. This serves little purpose of you're simply entering the max you'll pay anyways. Hiding this doesn't help you win if someone will pay more.

2. They let you cancel your intent to buy with no repercussions. A lot of bidding sites won't let you withdraw a bid once made.

(2) could possibly be of value but (1) is purely a human mental thing -- it doesn't make you any more or less likely to win. But you might feel like it does.

If eBay his bids and simply revealed the winner at the zero hour it would be doing exactly what sniping sites are doing, minus the randomness that their party sites trying to communicate with ebay's API inject in to the whole process.

Also, there's fair risk in sharing your credentials to eBay with a third party site.

Edit: I thought about it a bit more and the use of sniping for case (1) could actually affect the outcome in some way because you're artificially hiding demand for something that's in very short supply (assumes the auction isn't a Dutch auction, it's just for one thing). So in that regard it becomes useful.

So it's playing with humans, not the system.

And it explains eBay never having provide blind auction support natively because non-blind auctions drive demand frenzies which drive up prices which drive up revenue for eBay.

If it wasn't for humans and their emotions fueling demand curves they'd be useless.

Fascinating indeed.

Edit 2: OF COURSE there are academic papers on the outcome effect of late bidding on second price auctions (what eBay auctions are)!!

Check this out: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=232111



> *Abstract: *
> There is a great deal of late bidding on internet second price auctions. We show that this need not result from either common value properties of the objects being sold, or irrational behavior: late bidding can occur at equilibrium even in private value auctions. The reason is that very late bids have a positive probability of not being successfully submitted, and this opens a way for bidders to implicitly collude, and avoid bidding wars, in auctions such as those run by eBay, which have a fixed end time. A natural experiment is available because the auctions on Amazon, while operating under otherwise similar rules, do not have a fixed end time, but continue if necessary past the scheduled end time until ten minutes have passed without a bid. The strategic differences in the auction rules are reflected in the auction data by significantly more late bidding on eBay than on Amazon. Futhermore, more experienced bidders on eBay submit late bids more often than do less experienced bidders, while the effect of experience on Amazon goes in the opposite direction. On eBay, there is also more late bidding for antiques than for computers. We also find scale independence in the distribution over time of bidders' last bids, of a form strikingly similar to the deadline effect' noted in bargaining: last bids are distributed according to a power law. The evidence suggests that multiple causes contribute to late bidding, with strategic issues related to the rules about ending the auction playing an important role.


The paper goes on to say that for fixed end auctions (ones that have a time limit) that are non-blind there's real, true value data to be obtained by observing previous bids which can help you formulate an optimal late bid.

Boom! Science! Crazy! I would have gone to my grave swearing "sniping" was useless but us meat bags make it something that isn't.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

I consider any purchase I win on eBay to be a hair over market price, so I have no problem with my final cost.

If you want a $500 guitar bad enough, put in your final bid for $2000, but place it in the last 10 seconds (just in case). Seems to work for me.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

I guess it comes down to how badly you want something. If it was something I kinda wanted, but only wanted if I got a good deal on, then I might attempt a snipe. If it was something I desperately wanted and was willing to pay a little more for, then I might go the traditional route.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

nkjanssen said:


> This ignores auction psychology, though. If everyone just entered the maximum they were willing to spend and stuck to that, it would work exactly as you say it would. But people don't do that. What happens is someone figures the most he's willing to spend is, say, $400 and he put that as his maximum bid. Then with one day left, he sees the highest bid is $410. He then _reconsiders_ his maximum and decides he'd really be OK with $425. So he enters a new maximum. With 4 hours left the person who was just outbid sees that he's being outbid, _reconsiders_ his maximum, and ups has max bid to $435. That continues on for the next few hours until an item that originally had a max bid of $410, ends up closing for $525. If the first person waited until the last second to place his bid, it would eliminate the possibility of other bidder reconsidering his bid. It doesn't guarantee a win if your highest bid is ultimately lower than the other person's highest bid, but it does prevent someone from reconsidering and increasing their highest bid after you place yours. In many cases, but not all, that will result in you winning a bid that you otherwise would have lost (or would have to have bid much higher on). In theory, the sniping system makes sense. In practice, I have no idea if any particular service works or not.


that's the nice thing about sniping, it keeps the emotions out of it....no getting caught up in the frenzy/competition of it.

The down side, is finding out that you may have missed out on the item by a very small amount that you might have been willing to stretch for. but of course, this is a bit of a gambling fallacy, because you have no idea how much more the other bidder would have stretched for as well.


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

"Which, for equal bids, is the same outcome you'd have gotten if both parties just bid on eBay. The third party site added zero value here."

Understood, but the question was who wins

"So it's playing with humans, not the system."

You got it - now please build a patch on the AXE that simulates a Strymon Deco


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## Guest (Jan 22, 2016)

Alex Dann said:


> You got it - now please build a patch on the AXE that simulates a Strymon Deco


Ha! Send me one and I'll get right on it! 

I actually need to model the Vox Time Machine delay...looking to pick one up or borrow one to do it.

Oh! Wait, I just looked at the Deco. Man, that ones pretty easy! Combine a drive block running the Tape model for the saturation or use a CAB block with a NULL IR and one of the Tape preamp types and then run that in to a tape delay for the double tracking. I've covered tape-based doubling effects here before:


__
https://soundcloud.com/https%3A%2F%2Fsoundcloud.com%2Fiaresee%2F30ms-tape-delay-doubler

I can whip something up tonight for you that'll tickle your toes.


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## sambonee (Dec 20, 2007)

Here's their explanation. 

It looks like ebay may have flagged your account as we re unable to log in as you. They do this sometimes. More often recently and it is affecting all snipers.


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

iaresee said:


> Ha! Send me one and I'll get right on it!
> 
> I actually need to model the Vox Time Machine delay...looking to pick one up or borrow one to do it.
> 
> ...


A few years back, the Starship trooper preset in the AXE was available and did a good job of emulating the Deco. Somehow that preset did not work with the updates and was removed from the preset list available (prior to the Quantum upgrade)


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## Lincoln (Jun 2, 2008)

because of sniping I've pretty much given up on eBay bidding. If it's not a "buy it now" I don't even look at it. And if I'm going to "buy it now", I might as well shop on Amazon instead, or get out & go to an actual store.
Maybe I'm not the only one who feels that way and this interfering with sniping sites is eBay's way of fighting the problem.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

Lincoln said:


> because of sniping I've pretty much given up on eBay bidding. If it's not a "buy it now" I don't even look at it. And if I'm going to "buy it now", I might as well shop on Amazon instead, or get out & go to an actual store.
> Maybe I'm not the only one who feels that way and this interfering with sniping sites is eBay's way of fighting the problem.


I don't think ebay is as much "fighting a problem" as they are trying to maximize their revenues.
look at getting snoiped out of an item as a good thing. Someone stopped you from spending more on it than you initially wanted to  If the losing experience lead you to the conclusion that in hindsight, you valued that item more than your initial bid, than that's a learning experience for you as well for next time.

I don't care for BIN auctions unless they have a Make an offer option. unless we're talking about cheap items from China ie less than $20....then, theres no point in waiting around days to see if you won, or going back and forth on offers nickel and diming each other.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

It's absolutely about profits. They make more if it sells for more.


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## vadsy (Dec 2, 2010)

I haven't shopped on eBay in a while, used to, and when I did I would set a timer to remind myself about auctions ending. I got up early in the morning or stay up late and I would do the sniping myself. Lay low, don't bid most times and get in last second, even received threats a couple of times after winning items. This thread got me thinking and I decided to watch some items, similar to what I'm selling, just for price comparisons. The latest one, price stays the same for a day but jumps by over a hundred bucks in the last minute, crazy. Love it.


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