# Gear shortages and demand



## Powdered Toast Man (Apr 6, 2006)

"There's going to be a ton of used gear flood the market in 6-12 months when all the people who bought guitars during covid quit after we go back to normal." 

I think we've all heard some variation of this on pretty much all the gear forums. The theory being that music gear demand has been so explosively high due to new players entering the market as they're using the down time to take up a hew hobby. This year, possibly next, when everyone gets busy with life again, a good number of them will resell their gear because playing an instrument didn't stick. Ok, solid premise. But I don't really see this as the driver for overall demand. Sure, in the entry level yes. But are new players the ones out there buying $2000+ guitars and amps? I could see some influx of used gear at some point but what exactly is it all going to be? A bunch of Squiers and Player Series guitars and Mustang amps? 

So in short, I don't think there's going to be a flood of premium gear on the market that's going to drive prices back down. I think we're all going to be disappointed when the recent pricing inflation sticks and this is just what things cost now.


----------



## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

hard to say. Have we ridden through the worst for our economy, or is there more pain to come?
music gear strikes me as something very elastic...its the first to get sold when cash is needed. so if theres more long term economic woes for THIS country, i'd expect current trends to be temporary in the used market.
and im really not going to even guess the future on this one, as ive been completely surprised at how the past year has gone. So Im taking an own and hold position with gear


----------



## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

Powdered Toast Man said:


> "There's going to be a ton of used gear flood the market in 6-12 months when all the people who bought guitars during covid quit after we go back to normal."
> 
> I think we've all heard some variation of this on pretty much all the gear forums. The theory being that music gear demand has been so explosively high due to new players entering the market as they're using the down time to take up a hew hobby. This year, possibly next, when everyone gets busy with life again, a good number of them will resell their gear because playing an instrument didn't stick. Ok, solid premise. But I don't really see this as the driver for overall demand. Sure, in the entry level yes. But are new players the ones out there buying $2000+ guitars and amps? I could see some influx of used gear at some point but what exactly is it all going to be? A bunch of Squiers and Player Series guitars and Mustang amps?
> 
> So in short, I don't think there's going to be a flood of premium gear on the market that's going to drive prices back down. I think we're all going to be disappointed when the recent pricing inflation sticks and this is just what things cost now.


I think your reasoning is solid. The factor you've omitted, though, is that more is being purchased remotely, rather than tried out extensively in the store. Of course, with the growth of on-line vendors and decline of bricks-and-mortar outlets, that started happening well before the pandemic. But I think the pandemic has exacerbated that trend, such that we _may_ just see an increase in beyond-entry-level gear that the purchaser "just couldn't bond with", once it arrived at their door. I'm not definitively _expecting_ it, but if it happens, my response would be "Yeah, I can sorta see how that came to be.".


----------



## Sketchy Jeff (Jan 12, 2019)

Powdered Toast Man said:


> I don't think there's going to be a flood of premium gear on the market


I have said some version of your first quote but that's different than saying there will be a flood of PREMIUM gear

I think it will be mid budget player grade stuff with very little use. The people chafing under public health orders aren't buying entry level squier strat packages but also not custom shop unique builds. The availability will be Mexican Fenders, Nice Epi Casino/Sheraton/LesPaul, Traynor, Boss and similar budget amps, midrange pedals, acoustic guitars, and recording gear. Then realizing that they don't really play it very much after all and when the living room can get used for hosting friends and family again the 'recording studio' will move to the garage for a while and then get sold off. I don't know that the super low end or really high end will change that much. 

j


----------



## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

I just hope we see $3 8 foot 2x4s again in my lifetime.


----------



## Lincoln (Jun 2, 2008)

tomee2 said:


> I just hope we see $3 8 foot 2x4s again in my lifetime.


$10.99 a week ago. I saw them for $9.38 yesterday!


----------



## Grab n Go (May 1, 2013)

Yeah, it's hard to say whether that will come to pass.

I _have_ noticed that the local Kijiji is flooded with gig-related stuff. There's a lot of pedalboards, pedals and big amps up for sale. I'm thinking that people have either pared down or reprioritized gear choices during Covid.


----------



## Varc (Feb 16, 2017)

Opposing viewpoint; there isn’t a huge influx of new people taking up the guitar.

I teach for Canada’s largest music store (not hard to guess), pre covid I’d get at least one new student a week, during the whole year of covid I’ve got 3 new students and have seen my student base of 50+ drop to ~15.

At the start of the pandemic with the monthly $2000 (that I didn’t qualify for despite losing over 1k a week, yeah I’m still bitter) I had multiple teenage-early 20s students ask me about what guitar or amp they’re going to spend their 2k on this month. Adult students that would take vacations now had cash to drop on that CS Strat or R9 LP. And don’t even get me started on the insanely unnecessary pedal purchases... wait that one was me.

I think this past year everyone has been delving deeper into whatever hobby they have. Way more golfing happening and money spent on club for instance, unless your in Ontario right now. Covid was the catalyst for the “new normal” in the used gear community.


----------



## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

Grab n Go said:


> Yeah, it's hard to say whether that will come to pass.
> 
> I _have_ noticed that the local Kijiji is flooded with gig-related stuff. There's a lot of pedalboards, pedals and big amps up for sale. I'm thinking that people have either pared down or reprioritized gear choices during Covid.


Ive noticed the same, as well rental PA gear. Lots if big stage speakers for sale pretty cheap.


----------



## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

Lincoln said:


> $10.99 a week ago. I saw them for $9.38 yesterday!


That's insane. A month ago I bought 1 8 foot 2x6 cedar deck board for $48. $19 last summer, and maybe $12 in 2019 for the same board. All my shed and deck projects are off for the summer.

As for gear....who knows. If retail keeps going up, and some people want to recoup their covid hobby expense, the market might see some used volume. 

One thing I noticed is old gear...with no garage sales there's definitely less bottom feeder stuff on kijiji. Old practice amps and off brand guitars, or even Squiers, just dont seem as common.


----------



## keto (May 23, 2006)

Heavy inflation is here to stay I speculate, with all the money injected into the economy. But as 'life requirements' continue to get more expensive (groceries, housing, anything commodity based), guitar gear will fall way down the priority list as bank accounts and paycheques get squeezed harder and harder. My take is that the initial hard bump in demand is over, funds flow out in the world is somewhat paused, the gear market seems to have started to slow over the past couple months. Pricing may start to take a hit now especially on very common goods.


----------



## Sneaky (Feb 14, 2006)

Lincoln said:


> $10.99 a week ago. I saw them for $9.38 yesterday!


Buy on the dip.


----------



## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

Sneaky said:


> Buy on the dip.


I'm working on a 2x4 trading app that let's people take control of their wood buying and selling investments, virtually, removing the retail middle men and their high fees, as well as the nuisance of actually taking possession of the investment. 
I'm calling it "Sherwood Forest"


----------



## Lincoln (Jun 2, 2008)

keto said:


> Heavy inflation is here to stay I speculate, with all the money injected into the economy. But as 'life requirements' continue to get more expensive (groceries, housing, anything commodity based), guitar gear will fall way down the priority list as bank accounts and paycheques get squeezed harder and harder. My take is that the initial hard bump in demand is over, funds flow out in the world is somewhat paused, the gear market seems to have started to slow over the past couple months. Pricing may start to take a hit now especially on very common goods.


I agree. Ay some point they are going to have to raise the interest rates to cool things off. 1982 all over again.


----------



## Griff (Sep 7, 2016)

I don't necessarily think this is all beginners trying out an instrument while in lockdown. I also think its more experienced players having more disposable income. I know the economy was bad, but everyone who kept working kept bringing in the same amount of money while not being able to spend it on all the normal things. Vacations, bars, restaurants, etc.

Savings piled up.


----------



## GuitarT (Nov 23, 2010)

Griff said:


> I don't necessarily think this is all beginners trying out an instrument while in lockdown. I also think its more experienced players having more disposable income. I know the economy was bad, but everyone who kept working kept bringing in the same amount of money while not being able to spend it on all the normal things. Vacations, bars, restaurants, etc.
> 
> Savings piled up.


Yup, that's our household to a T. We've had no reduction in income but a substantial reduction in discretionary spending. We used a few grand to replace some windows in the house last fall. We're looking at the same scenario this year.


----------



## guitarman2 (Aug 25, 2006)

Powdered Toast Man said:


> "There's going to be a ton of used gear flood the market in 6-12 months when all the people who bought guitars during covid quit after we go back to normal."
> 
> I think we've all heard some variation of this on pretty much all the gear forums. The theory being that music gear demand has been so explosively high due to new players entering the market as they're using the down time to take up a hew hobby. This year, possibly next, when everyone gets busy with life again, a good number of them will resell their gear because playing an instrument didn't stick. Ok, solid premise. But I don't really see this as the driver for overall demand. Sure, in the entry level yes. But are new players the ones out there buying $2000+ guitars and amps? I could see some influx of used gear at some point but what exactly is it all going to be? A bunch of Squiers and Player Series guitars and Mustang amps?
> 
> So in short, I don't think there's going to be a flood of premium gear on the market that's going to drive prices back down. I think we're all going to be disappointed when the recent pricing inflation sticks and this is just what things cost now.



You'd think the market will get flooded with entry level gear and that may well happen. But with the economy opening and closing over and over its going to eventually cause some major damage. Damage that we have not begun to realize yet. Those left with jobs may get some great deals on some high end gear from those that used to have good jobs.


----------



## crann (May 10, 2014)

guitarman2 said:


> Those left with jobs may get some great deals on some high end gear from those that used to have good jobs.


I'm not sure about that. Poor people got poorer over the last year and middleclass to rich people got far wealthier, small business owners being the exception. If you were invested in the market and owned your home, you likely piled up cash. For those working on the margins, I feel for ya, but your landlords, banks, government etc do not. I can't think of very many "good" jobs decimated by the pandemic, I can certainly be wrong though. Point being, I'm hard pressed to see a scenario where everyone starts unloading fender CS, PRS core, murphy Gibson etc.


----------



## sulphur (Jun 2, 2011)

I think that the suppy side of things took a hit increasing scarcity.


----------



## guitarman2 (Aug 25, 2006)

crann said:


> I'm not sure about that. Poor people got poorer over the last year and middleclass to rich people got far wealthier, small business owners being the exception. If you were invested in the market and owned your home, you likely piled up cash. For those working on the margins, I feel for ya, but your landlords, banks, government etc do not. I can't think of very many "good" jobs decimated by the pandemic, I can certainly be wrong though. Point being, I'm hard pressed to see a scenario where everyone starts unloading fender CS, PRS core, murphy Gibson etc.


I'm middle class. I've managed to keep my good job through this. My investments took a big tumble in the beginning, rebounded back to nearly what it was and has pretty much not grown for close to a year. 
I'm not sure what you consider as a good job but many job markets have been decimated. We don't hear much about it as they are all on CERB or whatever government assistance is in place now. As the dominoes tumble in the near future with hyper inflation, high interest rates, etc, I imagine it will be then we start to realize who this affects and we may see many luxury items up for sale at a nice discount.


----------



## Kerry Brown (Mar 31, 2014)

After many years of buying, selling, and trading more gear than I care to think about COVID changed me. I became very focused on my playing and songwriting. I bought two guitars and one amp in the past year. They were researched for at least a month and I got exactly what I wanted. I'm 67 and plan on keeping them until I die. Because of the focus of COVID I know what I want. I still need a cab or a speaker for my existing cab but until I can play live again with my existing cab I won't know what I'm looking for. I'm slowly selling off all my older gear. I'm quite surprised how quickly it is selling and at the silly prices I am getting, generally 15 to 30% more than I paid for it used a couple of years ago. I wonder if COVID has affected others this way, way more focused and know exactly what they want. Before I wanted to try everything. Now I want very specific items.


----------



## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

Given how much they rely on the same sort of lumber used for many household builds, I wonder if speaker cabs are going to show a hike in price of more than what one would normally expect over time.

My wife has her heart set on getting a sunroom added on to the back of our house. I have suggested to her that perhaps it should wait until next year when lumber prices simmer down. Her view is that everything is going to go up in price between now and next year anyway, so waiting wouldn't make any difference in price. I dunno. There's a lot of what you can see in a sunroom that is glass and non-lumber. But there's a whole lotta floor and structural wood below that is lumber intense and could goose the cost up. The decision may well be made for us by the contractor saying that they can't fit it into the schedule before next spring.

As for how all of this affects others, it's so damn complicated, I honestly can't say what to expect. Some people HAVE been saving more with less to spend it on, although just how _much_ less? It's not like Amazon and others are experiencing a huge downturn in demand for their goods and services. And if you want to spend, there's no shortage of ways to piss away one's money without leaving the house or apartment. We generally like to think of business owners as the people with money, and their employees as the people without, but I would imagine there are many small business owners who are relying on their savings to pay creditors or even employee salaries, in hopes of keeping their business alive to come out the other side.

Could be my imagination, or just a couple people with lots of listings, but there seems to be more drum-related items on Ottawa Kijiji these days. I imagination if you're cooped up at home with the family, who are either trying to work or go to school from home, there's not a lot of tolerance for one's inner Neil Peart.


----------



## DC23 (Mar 28, 2014)

I would say the middle class certainly also took a hit with all of this. I’m gonna keep it away from politics but will just say demand for gear is at an all time high. I’m priced out of everything that I was interested in prior to the pandemic so may just take a break from music for a while _shrug_.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


----------



## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

DC23 said:


> I would say the middle class certainly also took a hit with all of this. I’m gonna keep it away from politics but will just say demand for gear is at an all time high. I’m priced out of everything that I was interested in prior to the pandemic so may just take a break from music for a while _shrug_.


Consider using the down time to learn how to DIY and build your own gear. More than enough collective expertise on this site to provide tons of useful advice on every aspect. And folks are generous with their knowledge.


----------



## LouisFNCyphre (Apr 23, 2021)

I'd expect if there's a collapse in prices in the top-end of the market it won't be related to covid, it'll be due to other factors.

I do anticipate a glut of beginner and intermediate level gear once covid ceases to be an issue. I don't expect it to all be Starcasters and Mustang amps though since adults tend to buy themselves more serious gear than they'd consider buying their kids to start with.

Personally I don't imagine I'm ever going to desire a 'big amp' again. Even a 112 combo takes up more space than I'd like.


----------



## crann (May 10, 2014)

guitarman2 said:


> As the dominoes tumble in the near future with hyper inflation, high interest rates, etc, I imagine it will be then we start to realize who this affects and we may see many luxury items up for sale at a nice discount.


I hope I didn't come across as dismissive of your comment, that wasn't my intention. I think what's happening in the used gear market and the job market are unrelated. 

1. Lots of people who bought guitars and just had them laying around are seeing a financial incentive to try to unload them at all time high prices. There are definitely those who are selling gear to get by, but I think that's the minority.

2. The pandemic did ravage certain industries, but what I think it really did is fast forward the economic landscape by several decades in a year. People buying groceries online, using Amazon for the first time, elderly registering for online banking, "green" energy, workplaces shifting to an online presence etc. After the virus settles, those whose skills don't fit into the digital economy will be hurt the most. I don't think these people are the ones hoarding luxury goods.

I don't know if that was even on topic anymore.


----------



## guitarman2 (Aug 25, 2006)

crann said:


> I hope I didn't come across as dismissive of your comment, that wasn't my intention. I think what's happening in the used gear market and the job market are unrelated.


No worries, I didn't feel dismissd.


----------



## Okay Player (May 24, 2020)

crann said:


> I'm not sure about that. Poor people got poorer over the last year and middleclass to rich people got far wealthier, small business owners being the exception.


Middle class who can work from home did well. Those who couldn't by in large part got hammered.


----------



## LouisFNCyphre (Apr 23, 2021)

Okay Player said:


> Middle class who can work from home did well. Those who couldn't by in large part got hammered.


Kinda depends on what they do for a living. Until I left my job it was constant overtime and backlog (automotive manufacturing). Right now there's a chip shortage causing a bottle neck but otherwise that would still be the case. My parents both have manufacturing jobs that haven't seen slowdowns. My brother works in construction, same story for him.


----------



## Okay Player (May 24, 2020)

LouisFNCyphre said:


> Kinda depends on what they do for a living. Until I left my job it was constant overtime and backlog (automotive manufacturing). Right now there's a chip shortage causing a bottle neck but otherwise that would still be the case. My parents both have manufacturing jobs that haven't seen slowdowns. My brother works in construction, same story for him.


Construction in Ontario (I can't speak for other provinces) has been off and on over the last year. In the automotive industry, manufacturing may have stayed relatively consistent, but sale and service certainly weren't.


----------



## Powdered Toast Man (Apr 6, 2006)

Okay Player said:


> Construction in Ontario (I can't speak for other provinces) has been off and on over the last year. In the automotive industry, manufacturing may have stayed relatively consistent, but sale and service certainly weren't.


Construction in Manitoba depends on which side you're on. Commercial is down. Residential is absolutely bonkers.


----------



## Wardo (Feb 5, 2010)

Been half assed kinda nosin around for another guitar but the ones that I want are all out of stock; which is just as well because I don't really need anymoar guitars.


----------



## Okay Player (May 24, 2020)

Wardo said:


> Been half assed kinda nosin around for another guitar but the ones that I want are all out of stock; which is just as well because I don't really need anymoar guitars.


What about a 71st Anniversary Broadcaster???


----------



## Doug Gifford (Jun 8, 2019)

I'm not a buyer or a seller these days but I _do_ wonder how wise collecting guitars as an investment is. How soon will guitars be like old student saxophones or, I suppose, pianos. Essentially worthless.


----------



## crann (May 10, 2014)

Doug Gifford said:


> Essentially worthless.


Could happen, but I don't foresee that. Large acoustic pianos have become obsolete in consumer demand because: they're huge, very loud, super heavy and basically replaceable with cheap keyboards that solve all the above issues. Keyboards, synths, midi controllers are more popular than ever and useful in all types of musical genres. With the emergence of neo-soul and prog metal stars on instagram, tik tok etc like Melanie Faye, Mateus Asato, Tim Henson, Ruben Wan and guitar becoming popular in hip-hop through the likes of Post Malone (he's really good) I think guitar has a bright future.

As far as investments go, they're terrible. But, pancake body Les Pauls and CBS 3 bolt Fenders are starting to command pretty high prices. It mostly just offsets inflation, but these were seen as "dogs" and are now coveted to a degree.


----------



## Budda (May 29, 2007)

Doug Gifford said:


> I'm not a buyer or a seller these days but I _do_ wonder how wise collecting guitars as an investment is. How soon will guitars be like old student saxophones or, I suppose, pianos. Essentially worthless.


If you want to invest, invest IMO. Yes collector prices go up, but I wouldnt call it a smart investment unless it's a vintage celebrity-owned piece. And even then...


----------



## MetalTele79 (Jul 20, 2020)

tomee2 said:


> I just hope we see $3 8 foot 2x4s again in my lifetime.


----------



## butterknucket (Feb 5, 2006)

Budda said:


> If you want to invest, invest IMO. Yes collector prices go up, but I wouldnt call it a smart investment unless it's a vintage celebrity-owned piece. And even then...


Vintage prices seemed to be at their peak around 2000-2001, and then things really tanked out after 2008. There was a bubble, and it burst. People who cashed in their vintage Fenders and Gibsons made some money back then. I don't know if that would happen again, but I certainly wouldn't advise it if you're wanting to make money. 

Just my $0.02.


----------



## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

butterknucket said:


> Vintage prices seemed to be at their peak around 2000-2001, and then things really tanked out after 2008. There was a bubble, and it burst. People who cashed in their vintage Fenders and Gibsons made some money back then. I don't know if that would happen again, but I certainly wouldn't advise it if you're wanting to make money.
> 
> Just my $0.02.


On PBS, Antiques Roadshow now shows past episodes with updated valuations. The shows that originally aired before about 2010/11 almost everything is worth less now. Exceptions are high value brand collectable watches and jewelry (Cartier, Rolex, etc.) and most original art works. Most of the furniture, toys, memorabilia, prints and posters are mostly down. I know, not guitars, but back then these items were all expected to keep going up in value.


----------



## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

MetalTele79 said:


>


Haha!
A few weeks ago there was a kijiji ad for "free deck boards". The guy had a 12x16 or so back deck he was taking down, and said if you demo it the boards were yours. The ad was gone in 24hrs. I figured it was about $500 in just the 4x4s and 2x10s, all green PT, at current crazy values.


----------



## butterknucket (Feb 5, 2006)

tomee2 said:


> On PBS, Antiques Roadshow now shows past episodes with updated valuations. The shows that originally aired before about 2010/11 almost everything is worth less now. Exceptions are high value brand collectable watches and jewelry (Cartier, Rolex, etc.) and most original art works. Most of the furniture, toys, memorabilia, prints and posters are mostly down. I know, not guitars, but back these items were all expected to keep going up in value.


I remember reading an article in a guitar magazine back in the mid 90's where the author was skeptical of the vintage guitar market having an unlimited ceiling. In hindsight, they were right.


----------



## knight_yyz (Mar 14, 2015)

Speaking of wood prices. Has anyone checked out any stores like exotic woods in burlington? Is it just lumber at the box stores that is crazy expensive or is it all wood? If a pine 2x4 is 13 bucks I'm afraid to go and price a large chunk of Maple or Walnut. I know you can only do curbside pickup so you can't even inspect what you are going to buy...

My friend works for Ford and he is laid off due to a computer chip shortage. My company makes the machinery that makes your drywall/stucco so we are busy as hell. I'm putting in 56 hours a week right now, where my last job I was lucky to get 40 hours a week. And we are hiring!

I think when covid is over and done with and everyone is back to work, most of the gear we will see will be average stuff. I don't think too many people went out and spent the bucks on Gibson or Fender custom shop stuff. I could never justify that in the best of times. I've only bought 1 piece of gear since covid and that was because I had sold a ton of stuff and actually had enough saved up to buy a high end vintage acoustic. But If I had not found my latest job when I did that money would have gone toward my mortgage, and my house would have been put up for sale.


----------



## keto (May 23, 2006)

tomee2 said:


> On PBS, Antiques Roadshow now shows past episodes with updated valuations. The shows that originally aired before about 2010/11 almost everything is worth less now. Exceptions are high value brand collectable watches and jewelry (Cartier, Rolex, etc.) and most original art works. Most of the furniture, toys, memorabilia, prints and posters are mostly down. I know, not guitars, but back then these items were all expected to keep going up in value.


'07-'08 was the peak, the financial crisis came, and until very recently, not many things would have been equal to then. The 'updated in '21' shows, we get back to equal on most things with exceptions (I don't agree on all of yours, but furniture for sure), tho I agree with your categorized list of climbers. I would expect that, given current monetary policy, the high end will continue to climb, we'll see how much potential higher taxes on the wealthy down south hits the markets.


----------



## MetalTele79 (Jul 20, 2020)

tomee2 said:


> Haha!
> A few weeks ago there was a kijiji ad for "free deck boards". The guy had a 12x16 or so back deck he was taking down, and said if you demo it the boards were yours. The ad was gone in 24hrs. I figured it was about $500 in just the 4x4s and 2x10s, all green PT, at current crazy values.


I need to build a new back deck in a couple weeks. I'm not looking forward to buying the wood. I'd rather get a new amp or guitar with the money


----------



## butterknucket (Feb 5, 2006)

keto said:


> '07-'08 was the peak, the financial crisis came, and until very recently, not many things would have been equal to then. The 'updated in '21' shows, we get back to equal on most things with exceptions (I don't agree on all of yours, but furniture for sure), tho I agree with your categorized list of climbers. I would expect that, given current monetary policy, the high end will continue to climb, we'll see how much potential higher taxes on the wealthy down south hits the markets.


I recently looked up the book value of one of my amps (I hadn't looked in a few years) and was a little shocked at the increase.


----------



## DrumBob (Aug 17, 2014)

There is an article in the June issue of _Vintage Guitar_ magazine that features opinions from about ten prominent dealers, all of whom have raised their prices over the past year, and although most of them don't want to admit it, the consensus seems to be, there will be a lot of gear on the market once COVID has come under control. I believe that will be the case. A few of them reasoned that prices will come down, and one was afraid of a repeat of the 2008-9 crash that took vintage values way down. My feeling was, most of these guys were covering their asses by painting a rosy picture post-COVID. One of them said he sold $40K worth of vintage guitars at one shot to a young doctor who had just gone into practice. People with money are buying freely.

People here in the US received stimulus payments from the government, many now on three occasions, and if they didn't need that money for essentials, it was spent on luxuries. These MI dealers are making hay while the sun shines. Just what I would expect, and ideally, not the way it should be. It's herd mentality: "Everybody is raising their prices, so I'll do it too." Sammy Ash said that he's paying more for used and vintage gear, so he's charging more.

The shortages on new gear are real. I spoke to Steve Ridinger of Evets Corporation a few weeks ago, and he's backed up on orders from Korea for his Danelectrto guitars and accessories well into next year. Several months ago, I had asked him about new models for 2021 and was told there are none. A lot of Eastwood's guitars are out of stock. Guild is out of stock on some models too.

The used guitar market has gone berserk too. I see the values of common used Rickenbacker guitars have gone through the roof. I'm glad I got all mine when I did, before the prices skyrocketed. A guy I play with in two bands wanted a Rick 12 string, but wound up buying a "Rickenfaker," a Chinese copy instead, for $600. The prices of Rickenbackers was too much for him.

The question is, what level of gear will be available? We'll probably see stuff ranging from budget up to the $1500-2000 range dominating the market, but that's just my guess. There's really no way of knowing exactly how things will pan out post-COVID, but I'm sure the ride will be interesting.


----------



## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

Yeah, I posted elsewhere about the same article. Definitely worth a read, although I didn't immediately see a lot of uniformity in their comments. I imagine it's because they tend to deal with a slightly different clientele by being in different markets, although these days one's "market" tends to be anyone who can find your website address.

Rickenbacker is legendary for putting the kybosh on copies quickly, with cease-and-desist orders, which is why a) we so rarely see copies, and b) why Rickenbacker never felt compelled to start producing a "budget" line, the way Fender, Gretsch, Gibson (via the Epiphone brand), and even PRS did. If you want something like a Rickenbacker, you BUY a Rickenbacker, and you pay for an American-made instrument and American labour. That's Rick's approach, and I respect them for it.


----------



## DrumBob (Aug 17, 2014)

mhammer said:


> Yeah, I posted elsewhere about the same article. Definitely worth a read, although I didn't immediately see a lot of uniformity in their comments. I imagine it's because they tend to deal with a slightly different clientele by being in different markets, although these days one's "market" tends to be anyone who can find your website address.
> 
> Rickenbacker is legendary for putting the kybosh on copies quickly, with cease-and-desist orders, which is why a) we so rarely see copies, and b) why Rickenbacker never felt compelled to start producing a "budget" line, the way Fender, Gretsch, Gibson (via the Epiphone brand), and even PRS did. If you want something like a Rickenbacker, you BUY a Rickenbacker, and you pay for an American-made instrument and American labour. That's Rick's approach, and I respect them for it.


You're right. I have had conversations with John Hall at Rickenbacker and he was adamant that he would never farm out a budget line in Asia. He cited that as the main cause of all the bogus Gibsons, Fenders, PRS's, etc. that are counterfeited there. Say what you will about Rickenbacker, but their business model is airtight and it works beautifully. They make only as many guitars as they know they can sell, unlike the other companies that spit them out by the hundreds of thousands and then hope they move out the door. I admire John's business savvy and his integrity. Rickenbacker is only one of his streams of income. He has his hand in commercial real estate and other ventures as well.


----------



## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

DrumBob said:


> You're right. I have had conversations with John Hall at Rickenbacker and he was adamant that he would never farm out a budget line in Asia. He cited that as the main cause of all the bogus Gibsons, Fenders, PRS's, etc. that are counterfeited there. Say what you will about Rickenbacker, but their business model is airtight and it works beautifully. They make only as many guitars as they know they can sell, unlike the other companies that spit them out by the hundreds of thousands and then hope they move out the door. I admire John's business savvy and his integrity. Rickenbacker is only one of his streams of income. He has his hand in commercial real estate and other ventures as well.


In 2007 or so, _Vintage Guitar_ had a news item about the court case between Gibson and PRS, regarding the Single-Cut (which Gibson lost). I sent in a letter to the mag about how Gibson's long-time neglect of Asian and similar copies (perhaps a result of vanity and a presumed "lock" on that part of the market) had undermined their trademark claim on the Les Paul body shape, and that now they were expecting their legal department to clean up a mess their marketing department had created. The editor, Ward Meeker, liked the note, and forwarded it to George Gruhn, who wrote me an hour later expressing his appreciation and agreement. We exchanged a few notes, and when I visited Nashville in 2009, I took him for lunch.

Rickenbacker is out of my price range, but I admire how they have stuck to their guns, maintained the brand and a quality product, and not been distracted by the prospect of "building an empire".


----------

