# NFL football pool this year? (2015-16)



## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

this can be used as a thread to talk about the ongoing season as well.
last year was one play away from being terrific :frown-new:

You are invited to join the GC NFL Pool. To accept this invitation and join the pool, click the link below (or cut and paste the link into your browser's address bar). You'll be asked to enter the pool's password before you can join. The pool password is included below.


http://guitarscanada.football.cbsspo...g=FFB10_cbsinv


Our Pool password is: gibson


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I am still dumbfounded that the Seahawks snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I do not root for them, but I it must have been gut wrenching for all of the men on that team who had played their guts out.


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## murraythek (Jun 1, 2013)

Is someone going to start a pool? I'm in if you do. Pick ems are always fun too.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

I will get the link set up


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

You are invited to join the GC NFL Pool. To accept this invitation and join the pool, click the link below (or cut and paste the link into your browser's address bar). You'll be asked to enter the pool's password before you can join. The pool password is included below.


http://guitarscanada.football.cbssports.com/e?ttag=FFB10_cbsinv


Our Pool password is: gibson


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## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

murraythek said:


> Is someone going to start a pool? I'm in if you do. Pick ems are always fun too.


this one is against the spread. it can chew you up in a hurry (especially when you start overthinking!)


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

Just signed up


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

Id be more interested in an nfl pool that tracked players arrests and scandals


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## Steadfastly (Nov 14, 2008)

Diablo said:


> Id be more interested in an nfl pool that tracked players arrests and scandals


Scott doesn't have enough space on his server for those.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

You are invited to join the GC NFL Pool. To accept this invitation and join the pool, click the link below (or cut and paste the link into your browser's address bar). You'll be asked to enter the pool's password before you can join. The pool password is included below.


http://guitarscanada.football.cbssports.com/e?ttag=FFB10_cbsinv


Our Pool password is: gibson


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## murraythek (Jun 1, 2013)

Having issues registering on the CBS site. Might have to bow out of this one.


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## keto (May 23, 2006)

Signed in and made my pics. First week only 48 hours away! Haven't watched any preseason or read any NFL news beyond Bradygate headlines, will take me a couple weeks to figure out what's what.


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## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

reminder - time is running out to get your week 1 picks in~


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## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

and Game 1 of the season reminds us what a fickle bitch the spread is. :sSig_DOH:


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

You know the spread has ZERO to do with what odds-makers think the game will be decided by right?

For the less informed, here's what the line represents. The line is the number that odds-makers THINK will get even money on both sides of the bet. Typically, you put up $110 to win $100. If they get 2 people on either side betting $110 ($220) they pay out the winner his $110 + $100 ($210). The left over $10 is what they keep, the vig. So, it's to their advantage to get as much money as possible laid, but evenly for both sides of the bet. Casinos are not in the business of gambling, they like a sure thing. If a line changes it's either because of some drastic event, an injury to a key player or the like, or they start getting too much money on one side of the bet and they adjust until things even out.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

It's actually much more complicated than simply "balancing the action".

"How odds are set is a really interesting subject that I have done some research into, and in a similar way sports analytics.The first paper I would refer to covers the NFL specifically "Why are Gambling Markets organised so differently from Financial Markets", Steven.D.Levitt (The Economic Journal 2004). This illustrates that the odds on the NFL are rarely set to generate 50/50 action because the bookmaker can exploit "square" action by skewing odds against their traditional bias"

not an easy read, but fascinating if you are deep into this subject, here's a link to start with:

http://stats.stackexchange.com/ques...ting-houses-determine-betting-odds-for-sports


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

The betting public in general is "stupid", they will bet too much on certain teams, their home teams, or favorite teams. Oddsmakers know this, and build a "premium" into the line. A perfect example is our forum's NFL pool. In Las Vegas, the Thursday night game was New England -7, so the game was a "push". Whoever sets the line for our little contest was sophisticated enough to make those of us who like New England pay an extra 1/2 point premium for the privilege of picking the Patriots. This made us vulnerable to a "backdoor cover", with :02 to go in the 4th quarter. Not whining or complaining, I admire the skill of whoever set this line. And it was a valuable learning experience for me, which I will make use of for the rest of the season!

- - - Updated - - -

Here is the complete article if you are a true bug-eyed fanatic like me:

https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/Levitt_Gambling_2004.pdf


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Another bizarre finish last night. I have been playing on Fan Duel as well. In the money so far pending a few games on Sunday. It's a pretty good system and you can play for as cheap as a $1.00 and up. 

Fan Duel


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

OK Boys, can I get a little respect here at this time? My boys are 5-0 and this team is for real. I have watched every snap this team has taken in the past 30 years and I can say with confidence that this team is the best they have fielded since '88 

The only thing that will stop this team is Dalton. So far he has been very impressive. Has he grown? has he matured? I have not liked him since he took the job. He has always found ways to lose. But if he has truly made those changes and continues to play as he has through these 5 games, we are in real good shape. 

There is only New England to get through on the way to the Superbowl.


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## keto (May 23, 2006)

Yes, they have absolutely looked fantastic, and I have watched probably 90% of their snaps this year. Very impressive win yesterday, I had Sea and thought I had it won for at least 1.5 hours...nope.

I'm having a very mediocre picking year so far, glad I haven't any money on it.


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

GuitarsCanada said:


> OK Boys, can I get a little respect here at this time? My boys are 5-0 and this team is for real. I have watched every snap this team has taken in the past 30 years and I can say with confidence that this team is the best they have fielded since '88
> 
> The only thing that will stop this team is Dalton. So far he has been very impressive. Has he grown? has he matured? I have not liked him since he took the job. He has always found ways to lose. But if he has truly made those changes and continues to play as he has through these 5 games, we are in real good shape.
> 
> There is only New England to get through on the way to the Superbowl.


Andy Dalton and the Bengals look great. As you mentioned if they play well down the stretch New England is the only one in their way. BTW....your former QB Carlson Palmer look's great. He and the Cardinals put a brutal beating on my pathetic Lions. I expected so much more from the Lions this year. They will be lucky to be 3-13 at the end of the season.



keto said:


> I'm having a very mediocre picking year so far, glad I haven't any money on it.


LOL....you are doing a heck of a lot better than me. I have had no luck with my picks this season.


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## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

keto said:


> Yes, they have absolutely looked fantastic, and I have watched probably 90% of their snaps this year. Very impressive win yesterday, I had Sea and thought I had it won for at least 1.5 hours...nope.
> 
> I'm having a very mediocre picking year so far, glad I haven't any money on it.


Seahawks playing complacent it seems.
I saw a tweet - if games were 45 mionute long they would be 5-0.
just taking the foot off the gas in the 4th (and OT)

and my picks stink this year so far as well. :Smiley-fart:


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Brock Osweiler will be the starting QB for Denver before this season is over. Peyton Manning is a Hall of Famer, a genius, a coach on the field. But it is painful to watch him, his body is falling apart on him. He will not last the season, whether due to injury or benching. This may also be Drew Brees' final season in New Orleans. There are several other high-dollar QB's whose contracts are not justified by their production. Honestly, you can no longer give a QB $20-$25 millon per year, and have enough salary cap left to build a winning team around him. Russell Wilson's contract, salary cap problems, and growing dissension are dooming the Seahawks this year.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

mario said:


> Andy Dalton and the Bengals look great. As you mentioned if they play well down the stretch New England is the only one in their way. BTW....your former QB Carlson Palmer look's great. He and the Cardinals put a brutal beating on my pathetic Lions. I expected so much more from the Lions this year. They will be lucky to be 3-13 at the end of the season.


I am also shocked by Detroit this year, they have talent on that team. I have Megatron on my fantasy team, he reeks. Had Tate on there as well and dropped him. I expected a lot more from that passing game this year.

I have pointed out several times that if Palmer (This Palmer, the right now Palmer) were on that Bengal team they would be lighting up this league something fierce. Dalton is mediocre on the long ball. improving but Palmer would be lighting it up out there. Eifert is for real as well. This is really his first season and he has huge potential


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

No one is doing particularly well in the pick department. I guess none of us are quitting our jobs to become football analysts...


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

Did any of you guys see this "fake punt" by the Colts? How could any coaching staff draw up something so stupid and expect it to work?:sSig_DOH:

[video=youtube;zrtzpdH_uPM]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrtzpdH_uPM[/video]


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

yep, it was sure enough bizarre


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## murraythek (Jun 1, 2013)

Why are my selections locked?


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I am only picking 55.5% correctly, and I work hard every week crunching the numbers. Peyton Manning finally got benched yesterday, sad day. Cincinnati has the 3rd best offense in the NFL, but their defense will keep them from the Super Bowl. Ditto for New England, 1st in offense, 15th in defense. I expect the Super Bowl to be Denver vs. Arizona or Carolina. This is assuming Brock Osweiler goes the rest of the season at QB.


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## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

yikes. 3 for 14 last week.
couldn't be that bad again if I tried. (I hope!)


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

puckhead said:


> yikes. 3 for 14 last week.
> couldn't be that bad again if I tried. (I hope!)


9 underdogs won outright in week 10, the best week of the season for the Vegas books! This has indeed been a weird season.

Wishing you better luck this week! I am looking at those dogs!


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Last weekend was the best of the season for the Las Vegas bookmakers. The public usually plays the favorites, especially to anchor their "teaser", and "parlay" bets. Well, the underdogs won 11 of 14 straight up, and 12 of 14 against the spread. This season is wacky, difficult to handicap. I have lost a lot of picks by 1/2 point, lost several picks in the closing seconds of the game. In a crazy season like this one, giving points is dangerous.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)




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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)




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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

As the NFL season draws to a close, I offer my choices for the best and the worst coaching staffs. 

Best: 1. Cinncy 2. Kansas City 3. Green Bay 4. New England 5. Carolina 6. Arizona

Worst: 28. Baltimore 29. Dallas 30. San Francisco 31. Cleveland 32. San Diego


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

Fast question? Where do the Patriots stand as of today? The NFL means nothing to me but the grand daughters are big Patriot fans so of course I have to take Seattle's side being that that is the closest NFL team to Vancouver. It makes for fun discussions. They haven't, yet, made me turn on the game(s) on t.v..


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Here are the top ten teams with their power ratings, according to one of my favorite sites: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2015/16/REL/

1 ∼ New England 11.62
2 ↑ 2 Arizona 11.36
3 ↓ 1 Carolina 11.13
4 ↓ 1 Cincinnati 10.31
5 ∼ Seattle 9.29
6 ↑ 1 Kansas City 8.83
7 ↓ 1 Pittsburgh 8.75
8 ∼ Green Bay 5.53
9 ∼ Denver 3.88
10 ∼ N.Y. Jets 2.78

This indicates that New England would be 8.84 points better than the NY Jets on a neutral field. The current Vegas point spread is only 3 points, which reflects the home field advantage for the NY Jets, and the numerous injuries to key players on the New England Patriots. As of today, I would expect the Super Bowl to be between the Patriots or the Bengals vs. the Cardinals or the Panthers.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Dark horse contenders would be the Seahawks and the Steelers. I don't think Kansas City or Green Bay are quite up to the level of the other teams I mentioned.


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

rhh7 said:


> Here are the top ten teams with their power ratings, according to one of my favorite sites: http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2015/16/REL/
> 
> 1 ∼ New England 11.62
> 2 ↑ 2 Arizona 11.36
> ...


So what you're saying is that the Patriots might make it to the superbowl. I suppose I should look to see where the Vegas money is as to who's in the superbowl. If they are only giving a 3 point spread that isn't much so things would probably be low odds.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Here are the latest Las Vegas Odds of who will win the Super Bowl:

ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUPER BOWL L (2/7/16)
*Team* *Odds*
New England Patriots 7/2
Carolina Panthers 4/1
Arizona Cardinals 5/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 6/1
Seattle Seahawks 6/1

So New England is perceived to be the strongest team in the NFL right now.


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

rhh7 said:


> Here are the latest Las Vegas Odds of who will win the Super Bowl:
> 
> ODDS TO WIN 2015 SUPER BOWL L (2/7/16)
> *Team* *Odds*
> ...


True but so far from what I can find out there is not a big point spread, win/lose.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Black Monday approaches...these are the 5 worst coaching staffs, in my opinion. These teams need to clean house, if I owned them the General Managers and the Coaches would all be replaced:

28. Dallas 29. Tennessee 30. San Francisco 31. San Diego 32. Cleveland


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

The best 5 coaching staffs, in my opinion: I have been amazed at the job Andy Reid has done in Kansas City:

1. Kansas City 2. Cincinnati 3. Arizona 4. New England 5. Carolina


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## leftysg (Mar 29, 2008)

Well Chip Kelly is gonzo and Pittsburgh who were 6-1 SB picks need help to qualify. I actually think it's wide open to get to the final but the week rest will be huge for the #1/2 seeds.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

My sincere congratulations to James V for winning our pool! I tried so hard, but could never catch up.


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## keto (May 23, 2006)

Yup, I had a mediocre year personally, but will be back for more next fall.

Congrats, J.


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

rhh7 said:


> My sincere congratulations to James V for winning our pool! I tried so hard, but could never catch up.


Yes indeed congrats to James V.....he was in the lead from the beginning and never looked back. I had a brutal time picking games this year.


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## james on bass (Feb 4, 2006)

Thanks Everyone!! I dropped down to 3rd place for 2 weeks I think, but other than that I miraculously kept in first. I'd have a absolutely crappy week, but then everyone else did too so it worked out. Man, there were crazy upsets this year.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I have recently been nuked in the political forum, but here I go again: food for thought...

http://www.thefixisin.net/nfl2015.html


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I will be back with predicitions for the playoffs and the Super Bowl!...I love NFL football, but my faith has been shaken this season...


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## puckhead (Sep 8, 2008)

Congrats James 
impressive fashion - pretty much wire to wire.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

So here are my picks for this weekend, made Friday night:

Kansas City -3 over Houston

Cinncy +3 over Pittsburgh

Seattle -5 over Minnesota

Green Bay +1 over Washington

edited early Saturday morning in light of Las Vegas line changes.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Final Coaching Rankings:

1. Cinncy 2. Kansas City 3. Carolina 4. New England 5. Minnesota 6. Pittsburgh 7. Arizona

26. Tennessee 27. San Diego 28. Baltimore 29. San Francisco 30. Tampa Bay 31. Dallas 32. Cleveland

You will notice that 3 of my bottom 7 teams retained their Head Coach. Just goes to show you, some billionaires are stupid!


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

If the fix is in for the 2016 NFL Super Bowl, Peyton Manning will lead the Denver Broncos to victory. And you can book it, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have absolutely no chance of winning the Super Bowl!


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

rhh7 said:


> If the fix is in for the 2016 NFL Super Bowl, Peyton Manning will lead the Denver Broncos to victory. And you can book it, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots have absolutely no chance of winning the Super Bowl!


Are the patriots in the super bowl?


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

The playoffs for the Super Bowl begin today. The Patriots have a bye, since they are champions of the AFC East division. I believe that New England will lose on a close call by the officials at a critical moment, probably in one of the playoff games before the Super Bowl.


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

Bengals really blew it Saturday night. Such stupid penalties to take on the last Steelers drive. This loss may cost Marvin Lewis his job.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I agree, if I owned the Bengals I would fire the coach, and the hot-headed players. The real tragedy is that Big Ben is probably not going to be able to play any more this year.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

There are sports fans and then there are the really true sports fans. Fanatics you may call them, I follow Basketball, I follow Baseball and I watch the odd Hockey game. For 30 years I have lived for the Cincinnati Bengals. There is nothing I don't know about the organization or the game or the players. If someone gets a hang nail I know about it. 30 years of one sided love, disappointments, lies and shame. About the closest thing I can compare it to is the hurt you would feel if the person you love wakes up one morning and tells you they have never loved you, it was just all a cruel joke and you are just alone and a loser. Most people won't understand that, it's the difference between the sports fan and the sports fanatic. When you give everything you have and the other person just plays you. It's a hurt that runs deep.
Today I am packing up my Bengals gear, my jerseys, my signs, my blankets, my slippers, gloves, hats and my memories and I am getting rid of them. I have finally got it, they don't need to kick me to the floor again, I get it. It's a one sided love affair and I am never going to be loved back, You win Cincy. I give up.


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

GuitarsCanada said:


> There are sports fans and then there are the really true sports fans. Fanatics you may call them, I follow Basketball, I follow Baseball and I watch the odd Hockey game. For 30 years I have lived for the Cincinnati Bengals. There is nothing I don't know about the organization or the game or the players. If someone gets a hang nail I know about it. 30 years of one sided love, disappointments, lies and shame. About the closest thing I can compare it to is the hurt you would feel if the person you love wakes up one morning and tells you they have never loved you, it was just all a cruel joke and you are just alone and a loser. Most people won't understand that, it's the difference between the sports fan and the sports fanatic. When you give everything you have and the other person just plays you. It's a hurt that runs deep.
> Today I am packing up my Bengals gear, my jerseys, my signs, my blankets, my slippers, gloves, hats and my memories and I am getting rid of them. I have finally got it, they don't need to kick me to the floor again, I get it. It's a one sided love affair and I am never going to be loved back, You win Cincy. I give up.


Just step away for a few days from the team. You'll get over it. Your post descibes me to a tee...except my team is the Detroit Lions. My team at times has sent me into euphoria and the next minute reach into my chest and rip out my heart and shake it in front of my face. LOL...if you think that's bad my cousin is a Cleveland Browns fan.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

mario said:


> Just step away for a few days from the team. You'll get over it. Your post descibes me to a tee...except my team is the Detroit Lions. My team at times has sent me into euphoria and the next minute reach into my chest and rip out my heart and shake it in front of my face. LOL...if you think that's bad my cousin is a Cleveland Browns fan.


I reached that level 10 years ago. This team just wont win, as long as Mike Brown is in control he wont allow it. I can't do it anymore. The organization has ruined so much talent over the years its not funny. They will ruin McCarron as well, he will be a good QB in this league some day but not in Cincy. They will ruin him just like they did with Palmer. I simply can't do it anymore. I will put my blood, sweat and tears into an organization that wants to win from now on. It's not the losses. I would support a team that went 0-16 if they tried. The Bengals just don't want to win.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

I feel better. It's nice to know there are worse disappointments than being a 49ers fan.


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

JBFairthorne said:


> I feel better. It's nice to know there are worse disappointments than being a 49ers fan.


You guys have a bunch of Super Bowl wins....Lions have never been to the show.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

You can only feed off a bunch of ancient history SO much. They had a decent stretch with Harbaugh at the helm but beyond that a lot of dismal seasons. They'll ALWAYS be my team though...unless Toronto ever gets a franchise (LMFAO).


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

GC if you want see the most stupidest defensive play of the year watch the Green Bay-Lions Miracle in Motown play. Zero time left in the 4th Quarter. Everyone at Ford Field and the State of Michigan knows GB is throwing the Hail Mary except the Lions coaching staff. The Lions head coach explained after the game they were expecting a lateral play from what I believe was about 60 yards to the Lions end zone. He should have immediately been fired after that explanation.


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

GuitarsCanada said:


> There are sports fans and then there are the really true sports fans. Fanatics you may call them, I follow Basketball, I follow Baseball and I watch the odd Hockey game. For 30 years I have lived for the Cincinnati Bengals. There is nothing I don't know about the organization or the game or the players. If someone gets a hang nail I know about it. 30 years of one sided love, disappointments, lies and shame. About the closest thing I can compare it to is the hurt you would feel if the person you love wakes up one morning and tells you they have never loved you, it was just all a cruel joke and you are just alone and a loser. Most people won't understand that, it's the difference between the sports fan and the sports fanatic. When you give everything you have and the other person just plays you. It's a hurt that runs deep.
> Today I am packing up my Bengals gear, my jerseys, my signs, my blankets, my slippers, gloves, hats and my memories and I am getting rid of them. I have finally got it, they don't need to kick me to the floor again, I get it. It's a one sided love affair and I am never going to be loved back, You win Cincy. I give up.


Hell GC, I am a true fan of the B.C. Lions, the Canucks, the Whitecaps and the Salmonbellies. One day the Lions will roar again and the Canucks will drink from Lord Stanely's cup.


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

Well, I think I was correct on 3 of 4 last week. 75% would have won this year's pool going away! So, your fearless forecaster is back with picks for the second playoff round:

Kansas City +5 over New England

Green Bay +7 over Arizona

Carolina -3 over Seattle

Denver -7 over Pittsburgh


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I am pulling for Denver and Arizona today.


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## Steadfastly (Nov 14, 2008)

rhh7 said:


> I am pulling for Denver and Arizona today.


Well, Denver beat the Patriots. I guess Peyton Manning isn't done after all. It will take a near miracle, though, for Arizona to come back.


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## Robert1950 (Jan 21, 2006)

They delay the showing of X-Files because of a bloody football game today!!! NOT happy !!!!!!


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## rhh7 (Mar 14, 2008)

I believe that the fix was in, New England was NEVER going to win this year's Super B0wl. If Denver wins, allowing Peyton Manning to go out in a blaze of glory, I will feel certain the fix was in.


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## Steadfastly (Nov 14, 2008)

I didn't see any fix. The Broncos simply played better than the Patriots.


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