# Future Collectibles?



## JethroTech (Dec 8, 2015)

Every single one of us has the fantasy: You arrive at the yard sale down the street and there, next to the Thighmaster and some dusty silk plants, sits a 1951 Nocaster (with original case) for $50. You talk the owner down to $35 and get them to throw in the mint Roland TR-808 (with original box and manual) for free.

Now it’s time to stare into the future. What piece of current gear produced within the last 5 or 10 years (guitar, amp, keyboard, recording interface, pedal, etc.) will become highly sought after 20 years from now? What is the pre-CBS Fender or Boss Japan DM-2 of the future—something that is right under our noses, something we should all be hoarding?

I'm asking out of curiosity. It’s not that I don’t think there is good quality current gear being produced; I just find it hard to imagine that anything that is mass-produced with a printed circuit board will ever be collectible. Thoughts?


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

Hard to say. My guess...nothing. Everything seems to be produced in such massive numbers that rarity is out the window.

My guess in general terms...something from a small scale manufacturer that is easy to overlook, that doesn't do well in the current market, that is relatively quickly axed from the manufacturers line... and that people later deem to be a hidden gem.


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## Tim Plains (Apr 14, 2009)

I follow Gibson guitars more than anything else. Some Collector's Choice models will be sought after, definitely the Jimmy Page No 1 and No 2 Les Pauls, and Pearly Gates for sure. You could maybe double your money with those SG tribute models and LPJ/SGJs if you bought them for $300 - $400 when Best Buy cleared them out. I see them all the time now on kijiji for upwards of $800.

I don't fantasize like that and nothing made now will appreciate in value like the old stuff did unless maybe Jimmy's name is attached to it. Basically, I think you're lucky to break even on a new piece of gear but you could maybe around the 10 year mark as long as new prices keep increasing and the economy doesn't crash. If the world does crash, I think we'll all be looking for firewood.


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## Guest (Jul 17, 2016)

Of the biggies (Fender, Gibson etc.), the signature models and limited editions (in number or colour/pup selection).


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## cboutilier (Jan 12, 2016)

All I can think of is the short run signature model Custom Shop guitars, like the Merle Haggard Tele


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

Even the Signature Models or the general run "Custom Shops" aren't really THAT rare though. In and of themselves they have no significant historical value or anything. Sure they may be worth more than an American Standard but not worth exponentially more, beyond reason.

I can't think of anything offhand that would kind of fit with this thread that came out 20 years ago from Fender or Gibson etc. Why expect a hidden gem from them now? I'm curious now...


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## Lord-Humongous (Jun 5, 2014)

Brian Monty guitars.


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

You'll be surprise, but it will be something stupid like squier bullet strat in unmodified mint condition.


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## Brett Pearson (Apr 26, 2016)

Continuing on with Jamdogs line of thinking, I think the Miku Stomp pedal would be a good candidate for a sought after item in 20 years. It is so silly and weird and it has a certain cartoon appeal that makes me think collectors would need to have one. I also suspect that they haven't sold a ton of them as they are almost useless (though funny as hell) for playing live, and as a result may fall into that 'rare' category.


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## Guest (Jul 17, 2016)




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## Ronbeast (Nov 11, 2008)

I think the Gibson SGJ and LPJ will have some future success in the same way as the Gibson marauder guitars did. 

It's hard to know, because a lot of the time, an instrument becomes big because an artist makes it popular (ex: Jack White).


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## Budda (May 29, 2007)

The whole thing with big ticket collector items is that normally, you don't know what they will be until 30+ years have gone by.


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## StratCat (Dec 30, 2013)

Great question. I agree with Budda, we don't know, can't predict, and if we could we would all do pretty well in the stock market as well.

Even Fender and Gibson went through periods where the future of the current models was in question and at risk of being discontinued. Clapton buys a handful of 1950's Strats in Nashville at a time when no-one wanted them and Gibson replaces Les Pauls with SGs.....

My guess for the future, these are pretty cool but at the end of the day, it's all about supply and demand. Clapton and Page and others we idolize, drove the demand for what is collectible now.


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## Guest (Jul 17, 2016)

Love that pic!
and the guitar.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

I would say the 2015 gibson models that everyone thought were cheesy. 

Fact is they could be had for a good price, since a lot of shops were just trying to get rid of them.

I got my son a junior for $800 new all-in. TV yellow. Changed and saved the tuners, so they don't break.

I definitely think the value will double in my lifetime


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## mario (Feb 18, 2006)

adcandour said:


> I would say the 2015 gibson models that everyone thought were cheesy.
> 
> Fact is they could be had for a good price, since a lot of shops were just trying to get rid of them.
> 
> ...



Totally agree with you. About 5 months ago I was in my local L&M and played a singlecut LPJ and it was stellar...except for the Robot tuners. I regret not buying that particular guitar ($750). It was priced right and it played like a dream.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

mario said:


> Totally agree with you. About 5 months ago I was in my local L&M and played a singlecut LPJ and it was stellar...except for the Robot tuners. I regret not buying that particular guitar ($750). It was priced right and it played like a dream.


Exactly. They play great and they're built just as well as the rest of them. 

What's even better is that I_ think_ they stopped producing them half way through the year. I remember reading it somewhere.


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## High/Deaf (Aug 19, 2009)

Sadly, I think we're at the end of a unique era.

Collectibility is all about the supply and demand ratio going completely wonky. Way too much demand (and a demand that has kept growing) and way too little supply (and a supply that is fixed). Right now, there is a dirth of guitar players that grew up in the 60's, 70's, early 80's that can now afford all the things we wanted but couldn't buy 20, 30, 40 years ago. That bubble of players are all trying to buy a limited number of 'special' piece from the 50's and 60's. The supply is nearly exhausted, which has driven prices through the roof lately. And, that bubble of demand is only going to last for so long ("who wants to live forever").

I don't see the number of people on the demand side getting bigger or even staying where it is . Or anywhere close to where it is. Fewer people playing guitar (percentage-wise, compared to the baby boomers). And the mass production of equipment is going to leave an excess of good gear, probably even vintage good gear with fewer and fewer players wanting it, or even remembering that everyone wanted it. I don't believe there will be much, if any, of a vintage guitar market 20 -30 years from now. I have no numbers to back this up, it just seems logical to me. I hope I'm wrong.


One caveat to all that: the majestic Klon. They will just keep going up and up, having a mystical pull over hip-hop artists, dj's, that band in Star Wars, everything. The Klon will rule the world. And I don't have one. I'm as doomed as doomed can be.




JethroTech said:


> I'm asking out of curiosity. It’s not that I don’t think there is good quality current gear being produced; I just find it hard to imagine that anything that is mass-produced with a printed circuit board will ever be collectible. Thoughts?


I believe the status of the Mark IIc+ is considered collectible. But I think most everything else mass produced won't find that niche. And it's got nothing to do with PCB's, I doubt the thousands of Friedmans, Dr Z's and Victoria's will ever be that collectible, unless they were owned by 'someone'.


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## Guest (Jul 18, 2016)

Wait till the current/future youngin's want to have what dad/granpa played.
Who knows. It may even be a variax. Eh Vadsy? lol.


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## High/Deaf (Aug 19, 2009)

laristotle said:


> Wait till the current/future youngin's want to have what dad/granpa played.
> Who knows. It may even be a variax. Eh Vadsy? lol.


More likely a Guitar Heroes controller.


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## mister.zed (Jun 8, 2011)

It will likely be some digital effects that are unique to that particular unit. There are some sounds I use that I can only get out of my huge-ass GNX4 multi effects unit. And that's why I still have it around.

Or people may want off-the-beaten path effects that no one bothered to copy or mimic. Some examples from my pedal board in this category include the Boss SL-20 Slicer and the WMD Geiger Counter.

Oh, just because it's so good: the OCD.


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## Ronbeast (Nov 11, 2008)

laristotle said:


> Wait till the current/future youngin's want to have what dad/granpa played.
> Who knows. It may even be a variax. Eh Vadsy? lol.


I don't think it's so cut and dry these days. The amount of instruments that I see being played at shows by the "heroes" (for the lack of a better term) is way more substantial these days. In the past, you saw mostly: strats, Les pauls, SGs, teles, a few other models/makes here and there. These days, I'm seeing everything from vintage teles to 8-string ibanez rg super strats. 

Then we have the fact that a lot of people no longer have "the one" during their musical careers. A lot of big name musicians change their axes and gear for each tour/album, now that money and availability allows it. 

As a musician that plays mostly modern music, I have basically zero interest in owning any vintage gear (though an old jazzmaster wouldn't be turned away) because that gear was never designed to offer the playability and tone I like. Vintage strats are great, but they'd need a lot of modifications to be used for modern shredding; and even then, there are way better options for way cheaper.


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## TA462 (Oct 30, 2012)

The 2015 Gibsons in mint condition for sure will be because a lot of people removed the self tuners and replaced them. Maybe the Long&Mcquade Faded Honeyburst Les Paul Traditionals from 2011 and 2012? Very small run of those were made, 300 I believe.


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## JethroTech (Dec 8, 2015)

A few people have mentioned the 2015 Gibsons with the robot tuners. I recently played a 2015 Les Paul Jr. at a nearby very well-known music store. I couldn't stand that guitar, but for $699, maybe I should learn to like it


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## cheezyridr (Jun 8, 2009)

High/Deaf said:


> Sadly, I think we're at the end of a unique era.



the above is closer to what i think.

todays kids aren't into guitar drivein music as much as we are. it's also not what the music industry is shoving down everyone's throat's anymore. in 20 years or so, there will be tons of les paul standards and american strats languishing in the attic because little johnny listens to edm, not rock, blues or jazz. sure, you'll have a handful of hipsters who still listen to rock, but it won't be common like it was when any of us were young. for those who doubt it, go up to a random selection of 15 yr olds on the street and ask them if they know the who the beatles, led zep, or black sabbath. if you get more than 2 i'd be really surprised. guitar players kids will know the names, but that's it. even most of them will only be able to respond "oh, that was my dad's music".
when we're gone, so is guitar driven music. i know tons of us don't want to face that as the truth, but if you think about it objectively, and put your own feelings aside, it's undeniable.


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## Ronbeast (Nov 11, 2008)

I don't think guitar driven music will disappear; guitar driven pop music probably will.

You need to remember that there are very technical musical styles that are highly guitar driven (metal and it's variants). 

I don't understand why everyone thinks that young people don't play guitar driven music like the older guys on this forum? Our influences are literally an extension of your influences? Music isn't a finite entity, it's a constantly evolving phenomenon.


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## Distortion (Sep 16, 2015)

Nothing built right now will ever be highly sought after demanding big money. Nothing.


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

My guess is one person shop / boutique builders that already have some exposure and production will stop or be altered once they move on.

A few years back, there was an announcement or rumour that Tom Anderson was going to pack it in and suddenly the used values skyrocketed. Builders like McInturff and Melancon whom once had a production team and decided to go solo could be candidates.

It's hard to predict the hype of the day.


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## LaRSin (Nov 27, 2006)

everything I own will be the next best thing , And I would be willing to let anyone of them go now for just 50% above retail , Here's your chance to own a piece history early ... %h(*&B#(*HNG^%$


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

cheezyridr said:


> todays kids aren't into guitar drivein music .


My kids both play the guitar. The oldest is 10.


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## Lord-Humongous (Jun 5, 2014)

Yep, I think guitar is still popular. It's not the only thing out there but it's definitely not passé. Heck, I saw Skrillex with a guitar on some award show performance.


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## bw66 (Dec 17, 2009)

It will be the S&P Showcase Flame Maple Dread... 

but mine won't be for sale... 

Sorry

Seriously, it will be something that isn't wildly popular right now, but some kid will start a band and it will become their signature sound and then everyone will want one. Probably not particularly high end, and possibly from a smaller manufacturer.


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## EchoWD40 (Mar 16, 2007)

There will be some. The Yamaha Wes Borland or TVL come to mind.


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## cheezyridr (Jun 8, 2009)

Jamdog said:


> My kids both play the guitar. The oldest is 10.


they are the exception (and power to them) rather than the norm. 
go stand on any busy corner and tell me what you hear on car stereos as young men drive by. go to any of the clothing stores at the mall (other than hot topic) geared towards young people. what are they playing so loud you can hardly talk? go to the trendy bars were young people hang out to meet. what music do you hear there? what music is continually advertised to young people on the television and the movies? what music is the industry pushing the hardest?

you can't come back from any of those with the honest report that you heard rock and roll. sure, there will be some throwbacks here and there. who still like rock, and country still uses guitars for now. but if you look objectively at what's really happening out there, the age of rock and roll, the age of guitar driven music is coming to an end. it won't happen over night. it will happen of the next couple-three decades. but it's inevitable. whether any of us can face it or not.


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

cheezyridr said:


> they are the exception (and power to them) rather than the norm.
> go stand on any busy corner and tell me what you hear on car stereos as young men drive by. go to any of the clothing stores at the mall (other than hot topic) geared towards young people. what are they playing so loud you can hardly talk? go to the trendy bars were young people hang out to meet. what music do you hear there? what music is continually advertised to young people on the television and the movies? what music is the industry pushing the hardest?
> 
> you can't come back from any of those with the honest report that you heard rock and roll. sure, there will be some throwbacks here and there. who still like rock, and country still uses guitars for now. but if you look objectively at what's really happening out there, the age of rock and roll, the age of guitar driven music is coming to an end. it won't happen over night. it will happen of the next couple-three decades. but it's inevitable. whether any of us can face it or not.


Yes, and nobody plays piano anymore. 
Or violin.


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

Guitar is tought in music class in standard curriculum in the public schools around here. 

They use acoustic squier. One per kid.


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## sulphur (Jun 2, 2011)

I wonder if the Gibson "Guitar of the week" run from '07 will be collectable.
I think they were all limited to a run of 400. 
Along the right are links to all of the guitars...Gibson USA Music Instruments Guitar: Special Guitars, Les Paul Classic, Gibson SG Standard and Firebird V Guitar Info

Mine is from week 34...

http://archive.gibson.com/en-us/Divisions/Gibson USA/Guitar of the Week/LP_Standard-Week34/


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## LPhilippe (Jan 6, 2016)

I personally think the only way for an instrument to pass thru time and become an icon, it must have a good story. So the quality of the instrument is not totally relevant as what this instrument "accomplish". For sure, normally good stories involve know people, but something is only a matter of coincidence that make a certain instrument worthy of the name. Base on that, I would try to find which instrument as a good story now et bet on them.

As for the futur of guitar, it's always hard to tell since the instrument only reflect the current culture. So you are probably right and rock and blues may disappear but some new genre can't be an evolution of those and still using guitars. Maybe not the way we are use to use them but in a way that fit the generation. We must keep in mind that the guitar is nothing like other instrument, it's the most common instrument in the world, so if highly improbable that we will stop seeing it in the next 30 years. 

Of course I could be wrong, but I think we could see a new type a guitar (like laser instead of strings) before we see the guitar disappear.


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

LPhilippe said:


> I personally think the only way for an instrument to pass thru time and become an icon, it must have a good story. So the quality of the instrument is not totally relevant as what this instrument "accomplish". For sure, normally good stories involve know people, but something is only a matter of coincidence that make a certain instrument worthy of the name. Base on that, I would try to find which instrument as a good story now et bet on them.
> 
> As for the futur of guitar, it's always hard to tell since the instrument only reflect the current culture. So you are probably right and rock and blues may disappear but some new genre can't be an evolution of those and still using guitars. Maybe not the way we are use to use them but in a way that fit the generation. We must keep in mind that the guitar is nothing like other instrument, it's the most common instrument in the world, so if highly improbable that we will stop seeing it in the next 30 years.
> 
> Of course I could be wrong, but I think we could see a new type a guitar (like laser instead of strings) before we see the guitar disappear.


Look at all the Songs in "la voix" that requires guitars. 

I'd be surprised if guitar dissappear soon. Rock and Roll might. Metal too. But guitars are somewhat easily available, somewhat portable, flexible fir what it does and usable on stage with reliability. Makes good for people wanting to play live music. Kids like shows too, not just DJs. What's being played might change, but unless they come up with a better instrument, the guitar has high probability of survival imho.


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## Guest (Jul 19, 2016)

Then again, with the price of electricity going the way it is,
nobody will be able to afford to plug in.
Maybe wind and brass (the big bands) will make a comeback?


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## NtR Studios (Feb 28, 2008)

I grew up in the 70's and eighties. Rock metal was cool because it rebelled against our parents. Now when I meet a young kid in long and mquade that is shredding on a guitar, he is playing the music I grew up with for different reasons. Its the music his parents listened to as he grew up, and they respect that, oddly enough. I have had chats with these young shredders, and they hate modern music too. So they are not rebelling against their parents so much as they are against modern music. Which is kind of a major point of rock/metal anyway. Rebellion lives on. My experince anyway.


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## NtR Studios (Feb 28, 2008)

Sorry, might have been a bit off topic, but relevant none the less


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## Ronbeast (Nov 11, 2008)

cheezyridr said:


> they are the exception (and power to them) rather than the norm.
> go stand on any busy corner and tell me what you hear on car stereos as young men drive by. go to any of the clothing stores at the mall (other than hot topic) geared towards young people. what are they playing so loud you can hardly talk? go to the trendy bars were young people hang out to meet. what music do you hear there? what music is continually advertised to young people on the television and the movies? what music is the industry pushing the hardest?
> 
> you can't come back from any of those with the honest report that you heard rock and roll. sure, there will be some throwbacks here and there. who still like rock, and country still uses guitars for now. but if you look objectively at what's really happening out there, the age of rock and roll, the age of guitar driven music is coming to an end. it won't happen over night. it will happen of the next couple-three decades. but it's inevitable. whether any of us can face it or not.


But you're still looking at such a small segment of the population. Such generalizations are dangerous. Look at games like guitar hero and rocksmith; sure they're gimmicky, and I hate them as much as the next fellow, but look at how wildly popular those games were. Kids were so enthralled in those games that their parents were buying guitars left right and center.

What you're referring to is pop music: modern easy listening radio crap. The reason you hear it at bars is probably because you're hanging out near a bar that chooses to play "popular music". It's just brain dead songs with the same beat and no thinking involved. You don't even have to remotely know the song to dance with it. Nevermind the fact that this music seems to attract young women, which in turn attracts young men.

If anything, I'd be willing to bet there are more guitar players this day in age than at any other given point in history, even including the apparent "golden years" of your youth. My reason for believing this? Look at the quality guitars you can get for $200. People's incomes open them to more purchases these days, and the option is there to get a good instrument at a good price. If people weren't buying guitars, there wouldn't be such a huge beginner guitar segment. Gibson, ibanez and Fender all make most of their money on their lower end guitars.


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## TA462 (Oct 30, 2012)

Kids now days seem to have a lot more money than when I was a kid. I also see more 15 to 25 year olds in Long&McQuade then I do people in their 40's and up. Someone has to be buying all these guitars.


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## bw66 (Dec 17, 2009)

I would argue that a lot more kids OWN guitars, but fewer PLAY them. There are a lot of kids who get guitars given to them in the hope that it will magically get them away from staring at a screen. I would also argue that games like Guitar Hero are popular because there is instant gratification - you get to feel like a guitar player without doing all the hard work. Guitar on the other hand does not provide instant gratification so it really can't compete with other forms of entertainment in our modern society.


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

bw66 said:


> I would argue that a lot more kids OWN guitars, but fewer PLAY them. There are a lot of kids who get guitars given to them in the hope that it will magically get them away from staring at a screen. I would also argue that games like Guitar Hero are popular because there is instant gratification - you get to feel like a guitar player without doing all the hard work. Guitar on the other hand does not provide instant gratification so it really can't compete with other forms of entertainment in our modern society.


There are games that uses actual guitars... Ever heard of Rocksmith?


It is said that 90% of the people that start learning the guitar actually still play a year after, it's not just a matter of kids or instant gratification. It's how it works. 

The kids private teacher told me when I started bringing him the kids "when they lose interest, I'll tell you and we'll stop class" 

So far they like it. 
More than the school's music class. 

Although my daughter don't practice often. I think she likes the class regardless, but don't alike "having to" practice.
But...
She wants another guitar.


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## bw66 (Dec 17, 2009)

Jamdog said:


> There are games that uses actual guitars... Ever heard of Rocksmith?


Absolutely! It's actually a great game - and not a bad starting point for guitar. But it takes work and I suspect that it will never be as popular as Guitar Hero.


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

bw66 said:


> Absolutely! It's actually a great game - and not a bad starting point for guitar. But it takes work and I suspect that it will never be as popular as Guitar Hero.


I am wondering if I should get it for the kids, what do you think?


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## GuitarT (Nov 23, 2010)

My 11 year old is into it, so are two of his friends. My co worker's teenage son plays. Go on Youtube, tons of kids playing. I dont see any shortage of future players.


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## bw66 (Dec 17, 2009)

Jamdog said:


> I am wondering if I should get it for the kids, what do you think?


Good question...

Assuming that you already have a suitable guitar, I think the game and cable are around $75 - about the price of three lessons. Although I don't think that it is a good _replacement_ for lessons. It's one thing to be able to play the right notes, something else altogether to know why, or to understand song structure, or to be able to play with live human beings, or to be able to make stuff up, etc. 

I think that as long as you understand all of that, then why not?


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## Jamdog (Mar 9, 2016)

bw66 said:


> Good question...
> 
> Assuming that you already have a suitable guitar, I think the game and cable are around $75 - about the price of three lessons. Although I don't think that it is a good _replacement_ for lessons. It's one thing to be able to play the right notes, something else altogether to know why, or to understand song structure, or to be able to play with live human beings, or to be able to make stuff up, etc.
> 
> I think that as long as you understand all of that, then why not?


The idea would be to help stimulate practices, as they have private lessons only once per two weeks. 

Thanks for the input.


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## Budda (May 29, 2007)

I would grab rocksmith to learn songs. I have considered it since i dont do much playing at home.

If you guys are such nihilists to believe that rock and roll will be dead in 30 years, most likely not. There are people literally risking their lives to play metal in the middle east - as long as someone says "dont do that" someone will do it. So as long as people are saying "rock is dead" there is a group of people who are working to prove them wrong. That same group may not be on forums because theu are busy experimenting with sounds.


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## JBFairthorne (Oct 11, 2014)

I got rocksmith for my kids. I tried it and didn't like it. I immediately noticed lag significant enough to make it difficult for me to play. Maybe if I didn't play guitar to begin with it wouldn't have bothered me so much.


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## Ronbeast (Nov 11, 2008)

I enjoy rocksmith, but the lag can definitely be a turn off; rock Smith makes recommendations for the best possible setup.

I like that rocksmith basically forces you to play songs from all kinds of different genres, and it encourages you to learn songs and techniques that you might not learn on your own. Overall, I'd say it's worth the money and there's some pretty good dlc packs.


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## Electraglide (Jan 24, 2010)

JethroTech said:


> Every single one of us has the fantasy: You arrive at the yard sale down the street and there, next to the Thighmaster and some dusty silk plants, sits a 1951 Nocaster (with original case) for $50. You talk the owner down to $35 and get them to throw in the mint Roland TR-808 (with original box and manual) for free.
> 
> Now it’s time to stare into the future. What piece of current gear produced within the last 5 or 10 years (guitar, amp, keyboard, recording interface, pedal, etc.) will become highly sought after 20 years from now? What is the pre-CBS Fender or Boss Japan DM-2 of the future—something that is right under our noses, something we should all be hoarding?
> 
> I'm asking out of curiosity. It’s not that I don’t think there is good quality current gear being produced; I just find it hard to imagine that anything that is mass-produced with a printed circuit board will ever be collectible. Thoughts?


Someone else bought the guitar and my wife bought the damned Thighmaster.....with the Suzanne Somers vhs tape.


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