# Swine flu outbreak..



## tomyam (May 14, 2007)

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/04/27/swine-flu042709.html

It's getting worse day by day...sigh

Hope all the forum members are ok. . . .take care of yourselves....

I guess I'll have to stop eating delicious pork...sigh


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

it is just a load of faBricationS you know.


It is THE SNIFFLES


Flu kills people EVERY YEAR. World wide. It will kill lots of seniors, it will kill fewer young people, it most likely will kill lots of immune compromised people. That is the nature of FLU.

This one is a puppy. This one has not significantly killed people. MOST people will not be any more than sniffly for a few days. Guess what, that is what flu DOES to people. This is a 'nothing special' event that is being spun around scaring people to no end yet again.

The real issues of the day are: THE FAILED WORLD ECONOMY. I wonder what the bigger news issue is that world governments and world agencies are misdirecting the public's attention away from really are 

For my part, I am going to do what I did with SARS. Totally ignore it. And if I should happen to visit hospitals. I will again blatantly cough on every person I talk with. I will do this, because the truth is it is an insignificant, unimportant, non-issue.


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

While I think it's only common sense to watch this bug, but it's really being blown out of proportion. Hell, if we get this milder form of "pig flu" maybe it'll give us an edge over the bad boy down in Mexico if it comes this way.

Shawn


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Brutal assessment :wave:


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

Put it this way, while I think it's prudent to be careful, there are *22 million*people in Greater Mexico City. There have been 149 deaths. Perspective!!!


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Brutal assessment :wave:


Here's a link to the CTV site, where if you read the whole thing there's a guy basically saying it'll be business as usual in a few days. It's a little more sobering than some of the BS that's been on the news every night since Friday.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...27/flu_contain_090427/20090427?hub=TopStories

Shawn


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Brutal assessment :wave:



LOL yes, but really... I have been reading a number of articles on this. Only a couple people have actually been actually identified to have had this flu. The rest is simply "supposition". One news article from the UK went so as to say "scientists are baffled why this bug only gives some people mild symptoms and others get really sick". I am reading this and thinking "some scientists need to go back to school, because that is what flu does". 

By contrast, The Great Pandemic of 1918 didn't. It made everyone really sick and killed lots and lots and lots of people. Would it do so again today? Not likely I think, though it probably would be pretty bad, and worse than this swine nonsense. Today we know that flu virus can survive on surfaces up to three days. That copper surfaces it lives shortest on and stainless steel the longest (the UK recently had that finding). We also know to wash our hands, and not sneeze of cough into peoples faces. We also have 'sick days' we can stay home rather than feel forced to go to work no matter what. Most importantly, at least in North America, most homes only contain one generation of family and no extended family members rather than 3 or 4 generations and some aunts, uncles, and cousins.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

Rugburn said:


> Here's a link to the CTV site, where if you read the whole thing there's a guy basically saying it'll be business as usual in a few days. It's a little more sobering than some of the BS that's been on the news every night since Friday.
> 
> http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNe...27/flu_contain_090427/20090427?hub=TopStories
> 
> Shawn


Gord Forbid, if it get's as bad as SARS will there be a SWINE FEST??!! 

I shouldn't make light of this as WHO does expect a MAJOR outbreak sometime in our lifetime, but we've gotten a whole lot more hygenic I would think. Wash your hands folks!

Just for a little more perspective... Approx 895 people die *daily* in the United States from cancer and 1 person has a heart attack *every 20 seconds!* Yet the Gov't will throw lots and lots of money around cause of 6 cases of the flu....


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## RIFF WRATH (Jan 22, 2007)

Boss just came back from Cancun this weekend.........through detroit......he laughed, said it is in mexico City..............didn't hear anything in the news in mexico.........I'm avoiding him....but thats just because he is the boss....lol


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

Starbuck said:


> Gord Forbid, if it get's as bad as SARS will there be a SWINE FEST??!!
> 
> I shouldn't make light of this as WHO does expect a MAJOR outbreak sometime in our lifetime, but we've gotten a whole lot more hygenic I would think. Wash your hands folks!


Has anybody in the media considered that Mexico City has some of the worst air quality in the world. That respitory illness' are much higher in the 18-50 year old bracket than what is considered normal. In the heart of the city there are pay oxygen dispenseries.......the air is that bad!! Here's a link

http://lakh.unm.edu/handle/10229/58573


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## LowWatt (Jun 27, 2007)

Rugburn said:


> Has anybody in the media considered that Mexico City has some of the worst air quality in the world. That respitory illness' are much higher in the 18-50 year old bracket than what is considered normal. In the heart of the city there are pay oxygen dispenseries.......the air is that bad!! Here's a link
> 
> http://lakh.unm.edu/handle/10229/58573


Yep. That's why every case of this respiratory illness by people who have left Mexico has been seen as very mild and almost instantly cured. It's bad for you if you live in Mexico city, but as far as major epidemics go, they need to travel better than this one to be successful.

In my work I deal directly with the people at the center of this for Ontario in the health community. All that we are worried right now is getting this thing nailed down as specifically as possible so that we can prove to people that this is in no way like SARS and it will be over with in short order. Sorry to sound calous, but this one is deadly, just not to us.

You want the real health story for today, this is it : http://www.health.gov.on.ca/english/media/news_releases/archives/nr_09/apr/nr_20090427.html

Ontario is basically accusing a collection of pharmaceutical companies and pharmacies of outright stealing over $33 million from the people of Ontario. Now the government wants its money back and are threatening serious legal action if they don't get it. There's even a list of the offenders at the bottom.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

LowWatt said:


> Yep. That's why every case of this respiratory illness by people who have left Mexico has been seen as very mild and almost instantly cured. It's bad for you if you live in Mexico city, but as far as major epidemics go, they need to travel better than this one to be successful.
> 
> In my work I deal directly with the people at the center of this for Ontario in the health community. All that we are worried right now is getting this thing nailed down as specifically as possible so that we can prove to people that this is in no way like SARS and it will be over with in short order. Sorry to sound calous, but this one is deadly, just not to us.
> 
> ...


Amazing, really amazing. You cant trust anyone.


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

glad my pharmacy isn't on that list. Shocked at the Hamilton shop though, didn't think Hamilton would have a small shop doing that many millions in business!

Well, it has been said for a lot of years. Pharmacies are in the drug trade. Double entendre intended.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

keeperofthegood said:


> LOL yes, but really... I have been reading a number of articles on this. Only a couple people have actually been actually identified to have had this flu. The rest is simply "supposition". One news article from the UK went so as to say "scientists are baffled why this bug only gives some people mild symptoms and others get really sick". I am reading this and thinking "some scientists need to go back to school, because that is what flu does".
> 
> By contrast, The Great Pandemic of 1918 didn't. It made everyone really sick and killed lots and lots and lots of people. Would it do so again today? Not likely I think, though it probably would be pretty bad, and worse than this swine nonsense. Today we know that flu virus can survive on surfaces up to three days. That copper surfaces it lives shortest on and stainless steel the longest (the UK recently had that finding). We also know to wash our hands, and not sneeze of cough into peoples faces. We also have 'sick days' we can stay home rather than feel forced to go to work no matter what. Most importantly, at least in North America, most homes only contain one generation of family and no extended family members rather than 3 or 4 generations and some aunts, uncles, and cousins.


The Spanish Influenza of 1918 wasn't as deadly as you're making it out to be. If I remember my statistics correctly, the mortality rate was only something like 10-15%. The vast majority of people that got it, didn't get that sick. It behaved just like any other flu, some people just got sick, some died. What it did have going for it was that it was very contagious, and stuck around for a while. That, and the fact that the Great War was ending, so many people were returning home to various parts of the world, at a time when medical care wasn't so easy to come by.

I believe it's estimated that about half the world's population was infected with Spanish Influenza in 1918. Even though a huge number of people died from it, it was actually a small percentage of the people infected. If it had been a mortality rate like what they've seen in the avian flu, it would have wiped out the world's population. But then again, maybe it wouldn't have spread so easily if it killed off so many of its hosts...

--- D


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

I think the biggest risk in this case is panic.

I've already had to change two important trips because of it.


I was in Mexico City in April and probably already had the bloody flu. I was sick (chest cough) for a week or two after the trip. No big deal.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Milkman said:


> I think the biggest risk in this case is panic.
> 
> I've already had to change two important trips because of it.
> 
> ...


You mean panic like this?












> WHO raises swine flu alert level
> 
> GENEVA — The World Health Organization raised its global alert level Monday, signaling the swine flu virus was spreading from human to human in community outbreaks, but it stopped short of declaring a full-blown pandemic.
> The organization's emergency committee had been meeting all day in Geneva to discuss the international epidemic which has now appeared in Mexico, the United States, Canada and Spain.
> ...


Source: USA Today

Note the speculators are all over the oil prices.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

GuitarsCanada said:


> You mean panic like this?



That, and similar. As I said, I'm pretty sure I caught the flu while in Mexico City earlier this month.

This isn't SARS. It's the flu. 

The last thing we need right now is media fueled parnoia. Think I'll throw on my copy of The Stand, just for laughs.


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## lyric girl (Sep 4, 2008)

I work in a hospital but don't have direct patient access. I'm not worried in the least personally. And as for the photo, at least two of the three masks are not fitted correctly, particularly the kid's, and wouldn't do much to filter the air correctly. I only know this, because I have to mask fit for work.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

I figure as long as you keep your hands clean and stay away from anyone that looks like this when they are sneezing...










and you should be fine.


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## Luke98 (Mar 4, 2007)

GuitarsCanada said:


> I figure as long as you keep your hands clean and stay away from anyone that looks like this when they are sneezing...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Unless hes ODing on Tamiflu and you couldn't get your dose.


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## Robert1950 (Jan 21, 2006)

Well, at least it will filter out the larger particulate matter from Mexico City's air.



GuitarsCanada said:


>


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Luke98 said:


> Unless hes ODing on Tamiflu and you couldn't get your dose.


There's an emerging black market for you. Tamiflu dealer


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

Talking with some friends today I was reminded of an interview I heard about the time of the Avian flu panic. The virologist being interviewed commented that a "killer" flu or similar virus would need to have a relatively long incubation period and a high mortality rate to fit the "doomsday" scenario many fear. This bug appears to have neither. One of the things that allowed for SARS to be contained was the relatively fast onset of symptoms.


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## Luke98 (Mar 4, 2007)

GuitarsCanada said:


> There's an emerging black market for you. Tamiflu dealer


Pretty sure the United states has that racket covered.

How much do they supposedly have again...? 
Enough to treat 46 million people.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,183379,00.html


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## zontar (Oct 25, 2007)

It makes sense to keep good care of yourself--especially if you get sick--and to avoid spreading it to others--but also makes sense not to panic.

I remember when the norovirus was all the rage--I got it, but an afternoon in the hospital, and a week of rest and I was as good as new.

Of course it's not quite the same.


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

Rugburn said:


> Talking with some friends today I was reminded of an interview I heard about the time of the Avian flu panic. The virologist being interviewed commented that a "killer" flu or similar virus would need to have a relatively long incubation period and a high mortality rate to fit the "doomsday" scenario many fear. This bug appears to have neither. One of the things that allowed for SARS to be contained was the relatively fast onset of symptoms.


Well. SARS (yes, it is a version of the common cold) also had 50 on the ground virologists in Hong Kong looking for a fast transmitting non mutating virus too. I was following that story weeks before it became SARS and it was, if I can recall correctly, 2 weeks after it was identified that the WHO released an international bulletin on it. SARS in the end had about a 10% mortality rate, but the populations that died tell a stronger story than simply saying that. I know in Canada that SARS hit a seniors home, and that could easily account for our blip. 

The trouble with SARS though, too much politics. You do need to have a forensics background to cut through all the political bs that was floated around at the time.

@Duster

Yes, funny how a persons memory can be affected. For me, the 1918 was a family pain I suppose, having had relatives that were affected by it. Also the large number of people that then went on to contract polio following it as well. I looked it up, and 1918 had a mortality of 2.5% to 5%, but like SARS the populations tell a different story. There were whole towns that were wiped out by it, and there were places where the mortality was around the 50% mark. 

Now, if 1918 was confined, and not let to spread around, and only those communities that were in the end hardest hit put into the stats pool, it would be viewed as having been far worse than it was.

I will neither panic nor fear swine flu. To me, nothing in any of the reports are suggesting any level of concern or worry. 26 people out of a population in the USA ~300, 000, 000 people is very very very far from worriesome, much closer to 'slow news day, lets sell some papers'.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

keeperofthegood said:


> I will neither panic nor fear swine flu. To me, nothing in any of the reports are suggesting any level of concern or worry. 26 people out of a population in the USA ~300, 000, 000 people is very very very far from worriesome, much closer to 'slow news day, lets sell some papers'.



EGGGsactly.

Also, there's a fair bit of "cover my a$$" politics happening with this one. Politicians are taking measures and issuing warnings just to protect themselves, not to protect us.


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## Jim DaddyO (Mar 20, 2009)

The 1918 flu ended WW1. Countries were running out of cannon fodder. I don't think this is Captain Trips yet (The Stand). I think the biggest problems are the over use of anti bacterial soaps and cleaners, industrial farming, antibiotic over use on people as well as livestock. You have to build up your immunity naturally. Just look at what happened to native populations when explorers brought diseases that were previously unheard of to the area. That being said, the world is ripe for a major outbreak of something. There will be a huge decrease in population. You think the economy is bad now! Unfortunatley (or maybe fortunatley), nature is not very selective, it will hit where ever and whom ever gets in the way. Won't matter what your income level or background is. Get out there and get dirty! Build up your immune system, take "normal" precautions. Like the old saying goes....you eat a pound of dirt before you die!


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Although I agree, in general, with the idea that we shouldn't panic, and I make it a key principle in my life not to live in fear, it also doesn't make sense to be complacent about things like this.

Yes, the numbers are small, in terms of people infected and people seriously ill. That's why now is the time to act. If we only wait for the numbers to be big, so we can put it in the context of something like the 1918 flu, then it will be too late to do anything about it, won't it?

Imagine if HIV had been identified and taken seriously when it first started to spread. We'd now be talking about a relatively harmless outbreak of an immunodeficiency disease in Africa. Most people wouldn't even know what it's called.

I'm glad there are some smart people working on the problem. I hope that in a few weeks we all look back at this and say "geez, we all really over-reacted, didn't we?" But that's not going to happen if we all just sit around and wait for it to run its course....

--- D


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

I think that likely the panic is due to the world being such a small place with intercontinental travel being so prevalent. Yep time to brush off the Stand and re-read that one again. Hello Cpt Tripps!


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

I prefer "The Road", Cormac McCarthy.

--- D


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

meh, too cumbersome, I still can't believe No Country was made into a movie...


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Starbuck said:


> meh, too cumbersome, I still can't believe No Country was made into a movie...


Actually, I never read No Country, so I don't know what it was like as a book. But the movie is absolutely awesome.

The Road is cumbersome? Sure as hell it is. That's what makes it so awesome. I haven't read such a hopeless book in a long time. Maybe not ever. They're making that a movie too, with Viggo Mortensen (or have they already done that?) I don't know how good that will be.

--- D


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## smorgdonkey (Jun 23, 2008)

I don't have the flu...I swear...it's just a sniffle!


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## allthumbs56 (Jul 24, 2006)

Milkman said:


> EGGGsactly.
> 
> Also, there's a fair bit of "cover my a$$" politics happening with this one. Politicians are taking measures and issuing warnings just to protect themselves, not to protect us.


Not to mention all of the "stakeholder" agencies that justify their budgets based on this stuff.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

*All Vacations to Mexico Canceled*

I have just received bulletins from all the major Canadian Travel companies that they have ceased operations to Mexico and are recalling all of their employees. There will be no flights to or from Mexico from any of the major tour operators effective today through June 1st.

The reason given is that WHO has raised it's threat level to 4 and the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel warning against all non essential travel to Mexico.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

GuitarsCanada said:


> I have just received bulletins from all the major Canadian Travel companies that they have ceased operations to Mexico and are recalling all of their employees. There will be no flights to or from Mexico from any of the major tour operators effective today through June 1st.
> 
> The reason given is that WHO has raised it's threat level to 4 and the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs has issued a travel warning against all non essential travel to Mexico.


The barn doors are now closed. Too bad the horses aren't still inside...

--- D


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Just to put this in perspective, here is an interesting stat on conventional flu.

"In the U.S., an estimated 25–50 million cases of the flu are currently reported each year — 

leading to 150,000 hospitalizations and 30,000–40,000 deaths yearly. If these figures were to be 

estimated incorporating the rest of the world, there would be an average of approximately 1 

billion cases of flu, around 3–5 million cases of severe illness, and 300,000–500,000 deaths 

annually."




Source
http://www.flufacts.com/impact/statistics.aspx


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

allthumbs56 said:


> Not to mention all of the "stakeholder" agencies that justify their budgets based on this stuff.


AND there's lots of folk who are making ALOT of money off fear. You know the people who sell pandemic supplies like hospital gowns and masks. During the SARS fiasco there was a company charging the Gov't $10 per gown as "supplies were low" and they were buying them buy the truckload.


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## nitehawk55 (Sep 19, 2007)

Starbuck said:


> AND there's lots of folk who are making ALOT of money off fear. You know the people who sell pandemic supplies like hospital gowns and masks. During the SARS fiasco there was a company charging the Gov't $10 per gown as "supplies were low" and they were buying them buy the truckload.


I had one person who did a lot of research tell me that the reason the "real" cure for cancer had not been found was that it was " big money " for all the treatments and money collected for research . 
Pretty sad to think companies and institutions use sickness to up the bottom line .


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Milkman said:


> Just to put this in perspective, here is an interesting stat on conventional flu.
> 
> "In the U.S., an estimated 25–50 million cases of the flu are currently reported each year —
> 
> ...


If you've been reading information about influenza, I'm sure you've realized that it's a complicated area, and that it's very difficult to generalize the way we tend to do. We talk about "the flu" or "influenza" as if it's one disease. In fact, there are many different kinds of flu virus, different ones in different parts of the world, and they change every year. They also have different effects in different populations. 

The particular strain of flu and the previous exposure of a population to similar strains will have a big impact on the outcome.

Every year different strains of influenza virus emerge, most of which are variations of recent strains. Every once in a while something comes along which is more rare. Now I'm no expert on this, but I understand that this one is an H1N1 virus, similar to the 1918 virus. It's been a long time since everyone in the world has been exposed to a virus similar to this one, so our immune reaction won't be as predictable. I think the fear is, people don't really know how our populations are going to respond to this virus. Could be nothing, could be serious.

The avian flu is a H5N1 virus, which is apparently very rare. The WHO says that if human-to-human transmission of that virus starts to take place, we're in real trouble... The mortality rate so far of people exposed to that virus has been something like 80%.

I almost think the media and doctors should stop calling all these diseases "flu" and start being a little more specific about what we're talking about. Educating people will help. There are people who think they need all kinds of antibacterial sterilization to fight this thing. Viruses die pretty easily with plain old soap and water. And this thing isn't communicated through the air, so I'm not sure what all the masks are for... Long sleeved clothing, frequent washing of body and clothing, gloves, and not touching your face would seem to be more helpful. 

--- D


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Duster said:


> If you've been reading information about influenza, I'm sure you've realized that it's a complicated area, and that it's very difficult to generalize the way we tend to do. We talk about "the flu" or "influenza" as if it's one disease. In fact, there are many different kinds of flu virus, different ones in different parts of the world, and they change every year. They also have different effects in different populations.
> 
> The particular strain of flu and the previous exposure of a population to similar strains will have a big impact on the outcome.
> 
> ...



My point was that this bug will almost certainly NOT be as deadly to us as conventional flu, and yet we're acting as if we're all characters in a Stephen King novel.

Try and imagine the panic if this swine flu killed even a fraction of the number of people who die from influenza ech year.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Milkman said:


> My point was that this bug will almost certainly NOT be as deadly to us as conventional flu, and yet we're acting as if we're all characters in a Stephen King novel.


It's still early days. I think too early to make that conclusion. "Conventional" flu is very widespread and everyone has had exposure to it, and it still kills a large number of people, as you say. Who knows how many people will die from this one. Might be less deadly than other flu viruses we have some immunity to, might be more deadly. There's only one way to find out, unfortunately. If it's less deadly, that's great. If it's more deadly, won't we feel silly for having been so cavalier?

--- D


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## LowWatt (Jun 27, 2007)

nitehawk55 said:


> I had one person who did a lot of research tell me that the reason the "real" cure for cancer had not been found was that it was " big money " for all the treatments and money collected for research .
> Pretty sad to think companies and institutions use sickness to up the bottom line .


I wouldn't necessarily go that far. But it is true that pharmaceutical companies are far more interested in coming up with drugs to treat diseases than drugs to cure diseases. It's not like a cure is being held back, it's more like they realize the money is in treating the disease so that's where they focus.

Still F'n sleazy.


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## lbrown1 (Mar 22, 2007)

"Swine flu" - just sounds gross......


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

Duster said:


> It's still early days. I think too early to make that conclusion. "Conventional" flu is very widespread and everyone has had exposure to it, and it still kills a large number of people, as you say. Who knows how many people will die from this one. Might be less deadly than other flu viruses we have some immunity to, might be more deadly. There's only one way to find out, unfortunately. If it's less deadly, that's great. If it's more deadly, won't we feel silly for having been so cavalier?
> 
> --- D


If you try and follow what the experts are saying, it quickly becomes obvious they're not all on the same page. It's becoming starkly reminiscent of the experts weighing in on the economy and when it may recover. One of Englands chief virologists suggested that this virus may not fare so well due to our previous exposures to H1N1 strains (or type A influenza). While people connected to the WHO and CDC are far more grim in their estimates. Who knows?

Shawn.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

Rugburn said:


> If you try and follow what the experts are saying, it quickly becomes obvious they're not all on the same page. It's becoming starkly reminiscent of the experts weighing in on the economy and when it may recover. One of Englands chief virologists suggested that this virus may not fare so well due to our previous exposures to H1N1 strains (or type A influenza). While people connected to the WHO and CDC are far more grim in their estimates. Who knows?
> 
> Shawn.


Case in point? it's kinda like Broken telephone.

http://news.sympatico.msn.ctv.ca/ab...ue&newsitemid=CTVNews/20090429/twitter_090429


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

lbrown1 said:


> "Swine flu" - just sounds gross......


Swine Fever would be much more gross.

I've had some friends get infected with that. Usually happens at the bar after too much tequila. Symptoms are euphoria, lack of judgement, and inability to judge accurate dimensions like weight and girth. It usually only lasts till the morning, but the recovery includes painful nausea and shame.

Not to mention, Swine Fever would be a good band name.

--- D


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Duster said:


> It's still early days. I think too early to make that conclusion. "Conventional" flu is very widespread and everyone has had exposure to it, and it still kills a large number of people, as you say. Who knows how many people will die from this one. Might be less deadly than other flu viruses we have some immunity to, might be more deadly. There's only one way to find out, unfortunately. If it's less deadly, that's great. If it's more deadly, won't we feel silly for having been so cavalier?
> 
> --- D


Cavalier?

I just don't buy into the media fueled paranoia.

I'm going to Juarez on Monday.

I'll tell you what. Next year at this time, let's look back and see if 40,000 people died in the US because of this. I'll be happy to step up and admit I was wrong if that happens.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Milkman said:


> Cavalier?
> 
> I just don't buy into the media fueled paranoia.
> 
> ...


I'm not saying that you personally are being cavalier. I wasn't trying to insult you. I'm just saying that it's important for the experts to take it very seriously, regardless of how unlikely it is to be a big killer. If next year, 40,000 people have died from this, you stepping up and admitting that you're wrong (I don't mean you personally, I mean people in general) isn't going to be much consolation.

There's a difference between being diligent and being paranoid. I advocate diligence, not paranoia.

--- D


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Duster said:


> I'm not saying that you personally are being cavalier. I wasn't trying to insult you. I'm just saying that it's important for the experts to take it very seriously, regardless of how unlikely it is to be a big killer. If next year, 40,000 people have died from this, you stepping up and admitting that you're wrong (I don't mean you personally, I mean people in general) isn't going to be much consolation.
> 
> There's a difference between being diligent and being paranoid. I advocate diligence, not paranoia.
> 
> --- D


Don't worry. I'm not looking for an argument. I'm just frustrated by the hype and the "cover my ass" paradigm that I see with this issue. 

I agree it should be taken seriously, but my opinion is that we're seeing a gross overreaction which may indeed do significantly more damage than the actual virus.

Obviously I don't want folks to die. I just want to put thngs in perspective. The stats I quoted are real, and yet, we don't take even close to the same measures with influenza that are being implemented with this panic.

We can't hide from virus'. 


Balance is a good thing.


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## guitarman2 (Aug 25, 2006)

This swine scare is getting out of hand. I had some problems last week due to acid reflux. At night the acid reflux caused stuff to come up then back down my into my lungs (mostly due to my fault eating the wrong stuff and late at night) I ended up in the hospital last week with pneumonia. The acid reflux problem was complicated with just getting over the regular flu. I was put on antibiotics and am feeling better. But the president of the company caught wind of my illness, due to the fact I collapsed at work. She now wants me to go back to the doctor to get checked out for swine flu. I don't think I have it as I'm feeling a lot better but I guess I got to go back and get checked out again. I do work in a high risk environment as we do a lot of business in Mexico and we have travelers back and forth from there. We have a manger there right now and the president of the company has told him to stay there until further notice. As his family is there he's got a place to stay and can work from there. The manager is not protesting as he would have to go to Mexico city in order to get back here and doesn't want to do that.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

*Let me ask this...*

So we all agree that the "hype" so to speak is out of hand. Is it due to the media overreacting or is WHO overreacting? The media headlines are just screaming!


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

Starbuck said:


> So we all agree that the "hype" so to speak is out of hand. Is it due to the media overreacting or is WHO overreacting? The media headlines are just screaming!


I would agree that the hype is out of hand yes.

Taking life seriously and being dilligent with how you live is always a good thing. Washing your hands after going to the washroom stuff. This is the kind of time when talking to the kids about hygene is a good idea.

It also seems to me the US government was the one that started the hollering first. And they seemed to spend a concerted amount of time hollering at the WHO. The WHO has maintained that a) spread cannot be stopped and b) um yea it might be dangerous so we will err on the side of caution. I saw no headlines or other reports of the spread of this having in any way changed between the day when the WHO said it wasn't spreading person to person and the day when WHO did say it was spreading person to person. For what it is worth, I have also not seen any kinds of headlines that say "of the 149 dead, the 129 mearly suspected cases of swine flu have been positivly determined to have been swine flu". Only that it is still just 20 confirmed cause/effect. Unless in todays papers of 2 bazzillion repetitious articles on this that I have seen I have missed that having happened.

I do smell a George Carlin monologue in this one.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Globe and Mail headline today:

"Canadian swine flu cases double as tourists come home".

Um, yeah, the number of cases doubled... to 13. I guess it's no different than saying "7 more cases identified in Canada". But it sure SOUNDS different. This is the difference between hype/paranoia, and diligence.

--- D


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Anyone for level 6 ?


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Anyone for level 6 ?


I can't see how it WON'T go to level 6. It's spread to countries all over the globe, there are a bunch of scattered confirmed cases, and it's gone human-to-human in at least 3 of those countries. Is there any reason for it to stop? Will it get tired and lazy and decide to retire?

So far thousands of people have come into contact with the virus and people that have it. The only thing that remains to be seen is how contagious it is, and how deadly it is. It seems to me that there's not much we can do to influence either of those issues. Wash your hands, and hope that the experts know enough to determine when people should be quarantined or if the risk isn't that great.

--- D


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Just got an email from one of my travel suppliers with a story out of the LA Times that saiys this virus is not that bad.

LA Times Story


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

There was a piece on the news last night where some scientists were questioning this new rating system adopted by the WHO. On the basis that it evokes more confusion and panic, rather than informing and organizing a suitable response. Geez...do ya think!!

Shawn.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

I saw an image of a Juarez cartel mobster carrying an M16 and wearing a surgical mask.



Not afraid of bullets, but parish the thought he'd get the flu.



Irony anyone?


I'll be in Juarez on Tuesday. Onward.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

Rugburn said:


> There was a piece on the news last night where some scientists were questioning this new rating system adopted by the WHO. On the basis that it evokes more confusion and panic, rather than informing and organizing a suitable response. Geez...do ya think!!
> 
> Shawn.


Ha no kidding! We received a "global memo" yesterday citing possible symptoms to watch for ect.. Two if which were "vomiting that other stomache complaint" Which, if you look at the flu fact website it's possible but not common in adults. Yes indeed I'm expecting alot of folks to be having the Friday and Monday flu!


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

The back peddling has begun. Reports now slipping out that the seasonal flu is far worse than this one. Reports of "mild" sickness now starting to surface.


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

GuitarsCanada said:


> The back peddling has begun. Reports now slipping out that the seasonal flu is far worse than this one. Reports of "mild" sickness now starting to surface.



Yup. The sniffles.

You know, I had a rather dim light bulb go off this week. There has been identified in cases of Breast Cancer, Smoking addiction, and Alcoholism a genetic DNA marker that, while not all with these markers WILL get the aforementioned issues in life, the ones WITH it will have a markedly higher chance of getting those.

One thing that has been said in all the literature linked here so far is that there are three groups of people that tend to die due to Flu. The very young, the very old, and the very surprisingly because no one would have expected them to have died. The old and the young, they make sense up front. That third group though. I wonder if they would follow what seems to be the pattern in such things. That some portion of the population has a gene that in some manner leaves them significantly more susceptible to having sever to deadly reactions to the flu?

If this is the case, then no warning system of any kind would be of general benefit, because only those that carry the gene would be at such risk. If this is the case, the whole pandemic issue is more moot than not, because MD's would need to pre-identify those people and ensure their inoculations. The rest of the population can have the sniffles and the weekend off work without the dread worry they would be the ones to drop dead.

Of course, this does not help the very young or the very old.

Meh, it was just a random thought on this week


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

I'm sitting in a board room in Juarez, Mexico right now with five other people and all of us are required to wear masks.


It's surreal and frankly very uncomfortable.


I'll be bloody glad when this is in the past. I'm not afraid, just annoyed.


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## guitarman2 (Aug 25, 2006)

Milkman said:


> I'm sitting in a board room in Juarez, Mexico right now with five other people and all of us are required to wear masks.
> 
> 
> It's surreal and frankly very uncomfortable.
> ...


overly cautious is a PITA. Overly dismissive is just plain stupid.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

guitarman2 said:


> overly cautious is a PITA. Overly dismissive is just plain stupid.


I agree, although I would say overly cautious is more than just a pain in the ass. It's actually devastating to some industries and causes unwaranted fear and stress.

Balance is a great thing. This bug is nowhere near as deadly as normal flu so far. I would be happy to use the same caution I do to avoid the normal flu.

Crap, there are soldiers patrolling the streets. I'm more worried about being shot.

We'll all be wearing body condoms before long.

So far nobody is being overly dismissive.


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Fear is a business. Just days after this thing started I seen banner ads flashing up on some sites advertising Swine Flu Survival Kits. How many of those pocket parachutes did they sell after 911?


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

GuitarsCanada said:


> Fear is a business. Just days after this thing started I seen banner ads flashing up on some sites advertising Swine Flu Survival Kits. How many of those pocket parachutes did they sell after 911?


Yup, fear sells.


The media thrives on it.


On the bright side, my hands have never been cleaner. I'm just curious how that Alberta farmer infected one of his pigs.


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

Milkman said:


> Yup, fear sells.
> 
> 
> The media thrives on it.
> ...



 DON'T ASK DON'T TELL!


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## allthumbs56 (Jul 24, 2006)

Starbuck said:


> So we all agree that the "hype" so to speak is out of hand. Is it due to the media overreacting or is WHO overreacting? The media headlines are just screaming!


Follow the money ....... always follow the money.


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## allthumbs56 (Jul 24, 2006)

Milkman said:


> I'm sitting in a board room in Juarez, Mexico right now with five other people and all of us are required to wear masks.
> 
> 
> It's surreal and frankly very uncomfortable.
> ...


I'm wondering if the Mods should even allow you to type this without wearing gloves ...... I mean ...... aren't we at risk just by reading your post?


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

allthumbs56 said:


> I'm wondering if the Mods should even allow you to type this without wearing gloves ...... I mean ...... aren't we at risk just by reading your post?


Yup, good point. I suppose the idea of a virus mutating from swine flu to a computer virus makes as much sense as the Egyptian government ordering the slaughter of all pigs in the country.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

Milkman said:


> I'm sitting in a board room in Juarez, Mexico right now with five other people and all of us are required to wear masks.
> 
> 
> It's surreal and frankly very uncomfortable.
> ...


If you worked for MY company, you'd be required to take ANOTHER week off after your return. No kidding.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Milkman said:


> I'm just curious how that Alberta farmer infected one of his pigs.


My guess is, he buys his boots a couple of sizes too big.

--- D


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Starbuck said:


> If you worked for MY company, you'd be required to take ANOTHER week off after your return. No kidding.



I believe it. 

I'm afraid we're too lean to give people extra weeks off for unrational fears. They did ask that I get checked out though. I'm still in El Paso and will be flying back today.

I'm fine. No flu. Didn't see anyone with any signs. Kissed no pigs (although I did see a couple of cute ones).


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

*How much has this cost us?*

Great story in the papers today:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...al/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20090519.wflu19art02250

as a 'for instance'.



> Canada has 520 confirmed cases of the A H1N1 virus, also referred to as swine flu. Except for one death, most of the cases are mild and the patients have already recovered.


Makes Swine Flu possibly one of the healthier flues to get.

So, who here is going to invest in the waterless hand wash companies and face mask companies? Seems the only product a broke economy will willy-nilly spend millions on over a case of the sniffles


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

keeperofthegood said:


> Great story in the papers today:
> 
> http://www.theglobeandmail.com/serv...al/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20090519.wflu19art02250
> 
> ...


It has cost us millions as taxpayers, and many thousands as a result of disrupted business. I'm STILL working on rescheduling meetings that wer postponed because of this.


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## keeperofthegood (Apr 30, 2008)

Milkman said:


> It has cost us millions as taxpayers, and many thousands as a result of disrupted business. I'm STILL working on rescheduling meetings that wer postponed because of this.


That to me is too much. 

This whole event has been dangerous in two manners beyond the virus at hand. Mark Hammer can probably give the explanations better, but I think the short on it is generally called "public apathy". I grew up with it a little simpler than that, "Crying Wolf". Why should people truly worry or fear something that really is dangerous when all the times previous were non-events?

The other manner is in the same boat as the "yelling fire in a crowded theatre". The current system of warnings and alerts to me does look a lot like this. To say 'yes everyone panic because this transmits fast' is just not enough cause to panic, and has cause far more harm than help in its wake.


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

This is just a thought, but I think a big part of this and indeed of other needless, media fueled panics is a result of a lack of accountability on the media's part.


Basically all they need to draw the heat away from such a farce is the next news event.



News is more like entertainment these days.


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## bluesmostly (Feb 10, 2006)

Milkman said:


> Just to put this in perspective, here is an interesting stat on conventional flu.
> 
> "In the U.S., an estimated 25–50 million cases of the flu are currently reported each year —
> 
> ...


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## z0z0 (Feb 19, 2009)

Swine flu was so overblown it is not even funny.
Regular flu kills so many more people


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## GuitarsCanada (Dec 30, 2005)

Milkman said:


> It has cost us millions as taxpayers, and many thousands as a result of disrupted business. I'm STILL working on rescheduling meetings that wer postponed because of this.


It's killed my travel business. None of the Canadian tour companies are going to Mexico until at least June 24th now. A lot of people are even nervous to go to Cuba.


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## CDWaterloo (Jul 18, 2008)

GuitarsCanada said:


> It's killed my travel business. None of the Canadian tour companies are going to Mexico until at least June 24th now. A lot of people are even nervous to go to Cuba.


I wouldn't be nervous to go to Cuba comparing to go to the US. Cuba is famous about their medical system like Canada... I was there 2 years ago. The first thing they did after the landing was the medical check with similing faces:smile:


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## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

The perspective adopted by public health officials (and properly so, I thought) was that a) if this was a flu virus that they knew absolutely nothing about, and b) they knew that influenza CAN decimate the population (exhibit A: the 1918 Spanish Flu), their best course of action was to have everyone on high alert until such time as it was clear this was nothing to be worried about. It's the same principle adopted by your place of work when a smoke alarm goes off: everyone evacuates the building until the firefighters tell you everything is safe and you can re-enter.

Of course, the inherentlogic of that approach is entirely separate from: a) the way things are depicted in the media, b) the frequency with which mention in the media is encountered, and c) the way people understand the message.

Risk is one of those things that is poorly understood by the public at large; poorly enough that it both demands prophylactic action on the part of public officials, and a push for better public instruction about risk, and especially relative risk. If it were my empire, I'd command every university graduate to take a course in probablity and statistics and score at least a respectable B+ before giving them a degree, no matter what their achievements in other courses. I happily qualify this by noting that comprehending mathematical probability is not the same thng as understanding health risk.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

mhammer said:


> The perspective adopted by public health officials (and properly so, I thought) was that a) if this was a flu virus that they knew absolutely nothing about, and b) they knew that influenza CAN decimate the population (exhibit A: the 1918 Spanish Flu), their best course of action was to have everyone on high alert until such time as it was clear this was nothing to be worried about. It's the same principle adopted by your place of work when a smoke alarm goes off: everyone evacuates the building until the firefighters tell you everything is safe and you can re-enter.
> 
> Of course, the inherentlogic of that approach is entirely separate from: a) the way things are depicted in the media, b) the frequency with which mention in the media is encountered, and c) the way people understand the message.
> 
> Risk is one of those things that is poorly understood by the public at large; poorly enough that it both demands prophylactic action on the part of public officials, and a push for better public instruction about risk, and especially relative risk. If it were my empire, I'd command every university graduate to take a course in probablity and statistics and score at least a respectable B+ before giving them a degree, no matter what their achievements in other courses. I happily qualify this by noting that comprehending mathematical probability is not the same thng as understanding health risk.


Add to the fact that comparitivelty we have decimated our collective immune systems by overusing antibacterial products, & we don't get near as dirty as we used to. (which consequently is _good_ for your immune system) Look at the spread of MRSA in hospitals etc as well as E-coli Strep ect, etc. At this point mostly every virus could be the next one. The media, however should have some common sense.


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## Rugburn (Jan 14, 2009)

Not all, but most news media did an awful job regarding this outbreak. My issue was not the reporting and following of CDC and WHO protocols, although scientists are debating the effectiveness of the WHO's Pandemic Risk Scale. Rather, my gripe is with the speculative nature of much of the media coverage. Reporting on what terrible things might happen, is truly doing more harm than good IMO.


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## guitarman2 (Aug 25, 2006)

Starbuck said:


> & we don't get near as dirty as we used to.



Geez. How do we rectify that?


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

guitarman2 said:


> Geez. How do we rectify that?


My 6-year old nephew and his classmates have been getting bitten by insects in the sand at their school - I don't know, sand fleas, sand mites, whatever the heck lives in sand. My sister's solution: "Stay out of the sand!"

I don't think today's generation of kids is allowed to get very dirty....

--- D


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## mhammer (Nov 30, 2007)

Rugburn said:


> Not all, but most news media did an awful job regarding this outbreak. My issue was not the reporting and following of CDC and WHO protocols, although scientists are debating the effectiveness of the WHO's Pandemic Risk Scale. Rather, my gripe is with the speculative nature of much of the media coverage. Reporting on what terrible things might happen, is truly doing more harm than good IMO.


With the downsizing of newspapers, one wonders just exactly who they send to cover these stories and what their science background is.

At the same time, the scientists who speak on behalf of governments and NGOs are not always the most articulate communicators. Stick non-science reporters in the same room with non-communicator scientists, and blather is sure to emerge. Every day, I see science news items posted that make me tear my hair out in frustration, and its the same thing every time: scientists who can't explain things, and reporters who don't understand things.


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## Starbuck (Jun 15, 2007)

Duster said:


> My 6-year old nephew and his classmates have been getting bitten by insects in the sand at their school - I don't know, sand fleas, sand mites, whatever the heck lives in sand. My sister's solution: "Stay out of the sand!"
> 
> I don't think today's generation of kids is allowed to get very dirty....
> 
> --- D


The way I look at it, if my 4 year old comes home from school (day care really) muddy and filthy, then she had fun. I have seen one Mother go absolutely ballistic! She has a whole body bib that the kid still has to wear!!! As long as I teach her to wash her hands lots, I'm good!


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

mhammer said:


> With the downsizing of newspapers, one wonders just exactly who they send to cover these stories and what their science background is.
> 
> At the same time, the scientists who speak on behalf of governments and NGOs are not always the most articulate communicators. Stick non-science reporters in the same room with non-communicator scientists, and blather is sure to emerge. Every day, I see science news items posted that make me tear my hair out in frustration, and its the same thing every time: scientists who can't explain things, and reporters who don't understand things.


The CBC had a guy reporting using Skype from his laptop in Mexico. I have no idea why they went lo-fi, but it sure gave it that "holed-up-in-the-bunker-with-my-canned-goods" feel. I pictured this guy alone in his basement room with nothing but an internet connection to access the outside world. At any moment I imagined zombies would run into the room and eat his brain on-camera.

--- D


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## Meatlord (May 18, 2009)

*Silver lining*

Just like SARS, this H5N1 "scare" has served to as a rehearsal for the time when something really deadly and widespread hits. It really exposes downfalls and holes in the system, hopefully these can be addressed before a real crisis hits.


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## Duster (Dec 28, 2007)

Meatlord said:


> Just like SARS, this H5N1 "scare" has served to as a rehearsal for the time when something really deadly and widespread hits. It really exposes downfalls and holes in the system, hopefully these can be addressed before a real crisis hits.


This one was H1N1. H5N1 is avian flu, which the WHO generally acknowleges will be "the big one". I think it's good to have a few small-to-medium crises to prepare you for larger ones. 

--- D


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## LowWatt (Jun 27, 2007)

Starbuck said:


> The way I look at it, if my 4 year old comes home from school (day care really) muddy and filthy, then she had fun. I have seen one Mother go absolutely ballistic! She has a whole body bib that the kid still has to wear!!! As long as I teach her to wash her hands lots, I'm good!


Now that's a healthy attitude. :rockon2:


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