# Bitcoin at all time high, boom or bust?



## Mikev7305 (Jan 6, 2020)

Who's hopped on board? And who thinks this crypto thing is gonna be worthless in a couple years? I personally got into it a year ago, glad I did. And when you look at how profoundly it could change society, on many different levels, it's very intriguing to me. 

Is Bitcoin the one? Or will other altcoins take over? Central bank digital currencies instead? Or will it all get shut down? What say you?


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## terminalvertigo (Jun 12, 2010)




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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

I think cryptocurrency is definitely here to stay (short of a targeted EMP blast that gold is immune to). But whether it's Bitcoin specifically that will be the leader is hard to say. Did you know there are over 6,000 cryptos now?

Regardless, I think Bitcoin's current upturn to the $60K levels is because of its futures ETF that debuted a day or two ago which opens up Bitcoin to retail investors (the regular dude). IMO, Bitcoin is going to dive bomb soon, probably as low as the 20Ks. But its long term future (a few years) could be stellar.


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## KapnKrunch (Jul 13, 2016)

Physical Gold/Silver = Food/Tools

Investments = Fun Money

Crytocurrency = Pie in Sky


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## colchar (May 22, 2010)

This crypto stuff doesn't make sense to me. What is 'mining'? Isn't it basically just creating stuff out of thin air?


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

KapnKrunch said:


> Crytocurrency = Pie in Sky


I love pie! It's here to stay and will likely be a key part of any diversified portfolio. BTC will have the highest market cap for the foreseeable future but alts will have better returns in the short term. Speaking of alts, it's critical to understand their utility before investing significant funds. I'm not sure I'd lump some of the tier 2s (dot, xrp, ada, eth) as "alts" in the same vein as doge, shiba or swaps.



FatStrat2 said:


> IMO, Bitcoin is going to dive bomb soon, probably as low as the 20Ks


Retracement is part of the game, but the chart shows the price action bouncing off of 28.6 about 3 times over a period of a year. I don't think we see 20s or even sub 36 again. Q4 has traditionally been where the parabolic moves up occur. I think we see 100k before 40k but who knows. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, THIS POST IS FOR FUN ONLY, CONSULT AN INVESTMENT SPECIALIST AND CARDIOLOGIST BEFORE INVESTING IN BITCOIN.


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

colchar said:


> This crypto stuff doesn't make sense to me. What is 'mining'? Isn't it basically just creating stuff out of thin air?


Mining, gas, burn etc are specific terminology the creators of these protocols used to make sense of the tech in terms of "commodities" to traditional investors/economists. There's a total supply of BTC out there (21 million) but a small number is released every 20 minutes (a block). You receive these BTC rewards for doing complicated algorithmic computation that takes more energy/power the more individuals fighting for these rewards (mining). The amount released is halved every so many blocks to create a supply and demand crunch. As the number of BTC released per block decreases, the higher it's potential value (based partially on the amount of energy required to "mine" it), the more interested parties get involved in mining which increases the amount of energy to mine which increases it's perceived value. If that makes sense. Think of it like the gold rush, the more gold is mined, the less there is in the earth, and if it's seen as valuable, more people will mobilize with shovels to try and get some.

Not all crypto is mined, not all crypto has a limited supply. So it's important to understand these fundamental differences.


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## allthumbs56 (Jul 24, 2006)

Aren't these "investments" pretty much ripe for being stolen - and boom you got nuthin'?


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## colchar (May 22, 2010)

crann said:


> Mining, gas, burn etc are specific terminology the creators of these protocols used to make sense of the tech in terms of "commodities" to traditional investors/economists. There's a total supply of BTC out there (21 million) but a small number is released every 20 minutes (a block). You receive these BTC rewards for doing complicated algorithmic computation that takes more energy/power the more individuals fighting for these rewards (mining). The amount released is halved every so many blocks to create a supply and demand crunch. As the number of BTC released per block decreases, the higher it's potential value (based partially on the amount of energy required to "mine" it), the more interested parties get involved in mining which increases the amount of energy to mine which increases it's perceived value. If that makes sense. Think of it like the gold rush, the more gold is mined, the less there is in the earth, and if it's seen as valuable, more people will mobilize with shovels to try and get some.
> 
> Not all crypto is mined, not all crypto has a limited supply. So it's important to understand these fundamental differences.



But at its most basic, aren't they simply creating something out of thin air and claiming that it has value?

You receive the BTC rewards for doing algorithmic computation, but for what purpose?


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## Mikev7305 (Jan 6, 2020)

colchar said:


> Isn't it basically just creating stuff out of thin air?


Kinda sorta. Crann explained it very well, and better than I ever could. The act of creating money out of thin air is exactly what Bitcoin is trying to rid out of society. Governments create all money out of thin air. This money is not tied to ANYTHING. Currency used to be tied to gold, but once a world war came along, and they needed to fund a war, governments stopped using the gold backed system. 

Bitcoin by nature is deflationary. Unlike modern monetary theory. It's a really big, and to most people odd way to look at how it would change society. I personally think for the better. People would respect their hard earned money a little more


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## colchar (May 22, 2010)

Mikev7305 said:


> Kinda sorta. Crann explained it very well, and better than I ever could. The act of creating money out of thin air is exactly what Bitcoin is trying to rid out of society. Governments create all money out of thin air. This money is not tied to ANYTHING. Currency used to be tied to gold, but once a world war came along, and they needed to fund a war, governments stopped using the gold backed system.
> 
> Bitcoin by nature is deflationary. Unlike modern monetary theory. It's a really big, and to most people odd way to look at how it would change society. I personally think for the better. People would respect their hard earned money a little more



Actually money was tied to gold long after the world wars. Nixon took the US off the gold standard in the early '70s.

Bitcoin seems to have value in real dollars so doesn't that mean that it has no real value itself, and is only worth something when converted into real money?

I just don't get how someone can wake up one day and say "we're going to create these packets of data on the web and force people to do calculations to earn them, and those will have value". 

I think I need _Cryptocurrency for Dummies_ because it all sounds like a load of tripe to me. Clearly there is something that I am not understanding.


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## Doug B (Jun 19, 2017)

As the saying goes "Buy land-they're not making it any more!"


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

Many people, specifically the old school economists, have said that either Bitcoin is the largest pyramid scam in human history or (according to new investors) it's a revolution.


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## keto (May 23, 2006)

FatStrat2 said:


> Many people, specifically the old school economists, have said that either Bitcoin is the largest pyramid scam in human history or (according to new investors) it's a revolution.


I don't know about a revolution, but you have big corps putting billions into it. I don't see how it's a pyramid, who is at the top?


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

colchar said:


> creating something out of thin air


In so many words yes. But "value" is a tricky. In guitar terms manufacturers take raw materials then input energy to create value. A custom shop guitar is worth more than production line because the amount of energy (time, skill, expertise) that was put into that guitar as well as it's perceived value. It's certainly not a perfect analogy. I understand the hesitation to assign value to "code". And perhaps this is more a discussion about intrinsic vs perceived value. The intrinsic value comes (in part) to the energy expenditure in order to "mine" BTC. Mining is actually the computation involved with updating the ledger, the list of where all the mined and unmined BTC are. Blockchain, the concept/technology that governs BTC and other crypto is not the same thing as crypto itself. The record of where all the BTC currently are, is the ledger that is distributed/viewable to any user and blockchain is the process by which the ledger is updated for all transactions.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Firstly, I'd be careful about getting into the market right now unless you know how to move your way through the coins (Bit, Eth, mid-caps, small caps and then into NFTs). Check out the greed/fear index online. Buy in fear and sell in greed unless you can navigate alt coins and know when to throw into stablecoins. 

I mined ethereum for a couple of years in a comparatively sophisticated rig. Smartest thing I ever did. When I sold my company, the rig went down. 

If you look at BTC's price performance compared to Nasdaq, S&P, Gold, etc etc etc, it has dramatically outperformed everything for over a decade. The chart is laughable. I can dig it up if you like. I told my father a few weeks back to put $30K into bitcoin, because according to Plan B, it'll hit $63K steady by the end of October. Then I told him to stake it at a 40% return (I ain't telling you guys where), because it's going to hit $500K USD by 2025.

Also, NFT gains are STUPID. Look at that fucking dumbass avatar I have. Does anyone know what that thing is? Cost me $150, and I didn't just buy one. I sold most at their peak. 

BTW, now is the time to buy blue chip NFTs, if you can afford them.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Doug B said:


> As the saying goes "Buy land-they're not making it any more!"


Bitcoin will stop being made too. It halves every 4 years - next halving comes in about 2 years.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Royal Bank of Canada uses Ripple (XRP) to facilitate transactions faster and cheaper than anything imaginable.
VeChain (vet) is used heavily in China's logistics/exporting DESPITE the FUD concerning bitcoin.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Not financial advice, so do your own research.


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## Mikev7305 (Jan 6, 2020)

NFTs are something that is on my radar, but I have not pursued much research on the subject. The idea of crypto as an investment is intriguing, but I think I'm more drawn to the way it would transform society. Obviously we all want to make boat loads of money, so hopefully that happens in the transition away from fiat currencies as well. 

The first book I read on Bitcoin, after listening to many podcasts on the subject, is called "Magic Internet Money" by Jesse Berger. It was an incredible read for somebody new to the subject. He breaks it down very well to the lay person. I'd highly suggest that book if anyone is looking to get more info on this stuff.


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## laristotle (Aug 29, 2019)

Adcandour said:


> Look at that fucking dumbass avatar I have. Does anyone know what that thing is? Cost me $150, and I didn't just buy one. I sold most at their peak.


Let me know when you want to change avatars. I'll only charge you $80.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

laristotle said:


> Let me know when you want to change avatars. I'll only charge you $80.
> View attachment 384217


Don't you wish you could sell them to me for $15K each though?


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## allthumbs56 (Jul 24, 2006)

No different than gold or money or a Van Gogh or a 59' Burst - it has value as long as someone believes it has value.


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## laristotle (Aug 29, 2019)

Adcandour said:


> Don't you wish you could sell them to me for $15K each though?


If you insist. Only because you're a friend.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

laristotle said:


> If you insist. Only because you're a friend.


Aw, you're the best Larry. haha.


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

^ What was Jesse's verdict (and yours after you read the book)?


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## Paul Running (Apr 12, 2020)




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## Mikev7305 (Jan 6, 2020)

FatStrat2 said:


> What was Jesse's verdict (and yours after you read the book)?


Hmmm.... Tough to say his verdict really. The book really just introduces ideas and scenarios of a Bitcoin society vs today's society. It seems like it is the ultimate way to invoke accountability to all levels of people (government, business owners, consumers, etc). The weakening and basically destroyed middle class today, would have a massive resurgence as a hard earned dollar could hold its value and be saved long term without losing value due to inflation. 

My big takeaway is that state run currencies have run their course. In the global society we now live in, one decentralized system could be the baseline value holder for every good or service traded. The biggest thing is that the government cannot manipulate the money to suit their own needs. They would simply be a third party mediator. It's a lot to comprehend for me still


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## Sneaky (Feb 14, 2006)

I heard John Paulson the other day describe bitcoin as “a limited supply of nothing”.

I have also heard it described as “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers”.

I won’t be touching it, although it seem like it’s here to stay.


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## bw66 (Dec 17, 2009)

colchar said:


> I think I need _Cryptocurrency for Dummies..._


This. Lots of words and acronyms (I think - maybe they are words too) in this thread that are going over my head. I would love to understand all of this better.


Sneaky said:


> I have also heard it described as “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers “.


I think I'm going to use this! Thanks!


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## Milkman (Feb 2, 2006)

Sneaky said:


> I heard John Paulson the other day describe bitcoin as “a limited supply of nothing”.
> 
> I have also heard it described as “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers”.
> 
> I won’t be touching it, although it seem like it’s here to stay.


That sounds about right. I won't put down what I don't understand and I clearly don't understand this.


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## colchar (May 22, 2010)

keto said:


> I don't know about a revolution, but you have big corps putting billions into it. I don't see how it's a pyramid, who is at the top?


Certainly not any of us.


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

There's something to be said about a complicated thing, like why does it have to be so complicated? Is something being hidden with this complication? The whole universe is engaged in continual entropy (dissolving, de-complication), why are we making things more complicated?

Anyway, I actually don't care what item, commodity or share is involved. I just try my best to trade things that lose value on shorts and increase on longs.

Also, I think today's Bitcoin high is a fake-out due to its new ETF. Let's see what happens in this next few days...


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## colchar (May 22, 2010)

Sneaky said:


> I heard John Paulson the other day describe bitcoin as “a limited supply of nothing”.



Sound about right.





> I have also heard it described as “everything you don’t understand about money combined with everything you don’t understand about computers”.


That fits me perfectly.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

I hold some Bitcoin and Ethereum (and a TINY bit of Doge and Bitcoin Cash) as part of my asset diversification.
i dont fully understand it, but it’s getting some institutional acceptance so has some legitimacy.
BTC is so much of an asset of value, I think it will hurt its functions as a currency for transactions…that’s where the other cryptos may come into play.

gold is essentially worthless as well (it has very little practical value), and IMO has broken down as an asset of value in tough times (weve just had the biggest global crisis since WW2 and what did gold do? It went down.). Reality is, when the shit goes down, we aren’t likely to prioritize the need to make gaudy jewelry over other commodities. if you’re planning for an apocalypse, invest in copper or uranium or something useful instead of gold.


im mostly in stocks. but I believe you have to go where the money is, even if you are only dipping your toe.
that said, the more mainstream BTC gets, the less likely I think we will see the crypto millionaire teenagers of a few years ago.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

FatStrat2 said:


> There's something to be said about a complicated thing, like why does it have to be so complicated? Is something being hidden with this complication? The whole universe is engaged in continual entropy (dissolving, de-complication), why are we making things more complicated?
> 
> Anyway, I actually don't care what item, commodity or share is involved. I just try my best to trade things that lose value on shorts and increase on longs.
> 
> Also, I think today's Bitcoin high is a fake-out due to its new ETF. Let's see what happens in this next few days...


All the highs leading up to this point were fake outs. Breaking an all-time high is something different - especially when it follows Plan B's consistently accurate price prediction. The ETF is a signifier of mass adoption (true mass adoption - or the start thereof - despite el salvador making it an official currency a while back). That said, now isn't the time to jump in unless you know how to set up your own stop-losses, because IT IS going to go down. Nothing new. Whether or not it keeps a higher support is the question.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Diablo said:


> I hold some Bitcoin and Ethereum (and a TINY bit of Doge and Bitcoin Cash) as part of my asset diversification.
> i dont fully understand it, but it’s getting some institutional acceptance so has some legitimacy.
> BTC is so much of an asset of value, I think it will hurt its functions as a currency for transactions…that’s where the other cryptos may come into play.
> 
> ...


That's very safe and really good portfolio for diversification. Not sure why that puckbag, Mark Cuban, said that he wants the Doge coin to stay stable (and it is). Shib is the newer Doge. I guess it makes it easier for him to accept it at the NBA games. Not sure what team he owns...

Re: Teenagers - Gaming NFTs are going to make people millionaires now. It's like staring a $5000 bitcoin in the face and saying, "nah", if you don't figure out how to 'ape' in.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Milkman said:


> That sounds about right. I won't put down what I don't understand and I clearly don't understand this.


That's a better way to look at it than to completely shut it out. Respect.

I'm sure there is an hour long documentary somewhere than explains it pretty well. I started with that, since I couldn't wrap my head around what a blockchain was.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

crann said:


> I love pie! It's here to stay and will likely be a key part of any diversified portfolio. BTC will have the highest market cap for the foreseeable future but alts will have better returns in the short term. Speaking of alts, it's critical to understand their utility before investing significant funds. I'm not sure I'd lump some of the tier 2s (dot, xrp, ada, eth) as "alts" in the same vein as doge, shiba or swaps.
> 
> 
> Retracement is part of the game, but the chart shows the price action bouncing off of 28.6 about 3 times over a period of a year. I don't think we see 20s or even sub 36 again. Q4 has traditionally been where the parabolic moves up occur. I think we see 100k before 40k but who knows. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE, THIS POST IS FOR FUN ONLY, CONSULT AN INVESTMENT SPECIALIST AND CARDIOLOGIST BEFORE INVESTING IN BITCOIN.


I agree that researching the team is important for alts. I can make money on Vechain constantly. Doesn't go lower than 3 cents and peaks at $0.13 consistently. That is a solid f'n coin that doesn't fail.

...for short-term gains it is more important to understand the narrative though. It moves pretty quickly and there's multiples. Last one I paid attention to was regarding cross-chain bridging.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Mikev7305 said:


> NFTs are something that is on my radar, but I have not pursued much research on the subject. The idea of crypto as an investment is intriguing, but I think I'm more drawn to the way it would transform society. Obviously we all want to make boat loads of money, so hopefully that happens in the transition away from fiat currencies as well.
> 
> The first book I read on Bitcoin, after listening to many podcasts on the subject, is called "Magic Internet Money" by Jesse Berger. It was an incredible read for somebody new to the subject. He breaks it down very well to the lay person. I'd highly suggest that book if anyone is looking to get more info on this stuff.


NFTs are difficult to get into now on the ethereum block chain (gas wars are INSANE). An L2 (?)Solution called Immutable X has solved the problem of exorbitant gas fees. I minted 2 Moody Crows with zero gas fees which was pretty remarkable.

The above said, they are the most lucrative investments in the cryptoverse. All you have to do is waste time on a discord to get on the whitelist. Make sure the project roadmap sounds legit and the devs are not anonymous. Now the market is down, so the best move to get in the market would be a doge pound. It'll cost a few grand, but you'll get a free NFT on Oct 28th that'll likely be worth $1K. Access to their launchpad (for future projects) is invaluable. It's considered a blue chip by some and will likely reach about $40K USD at it's peak - probably when Coinbase oftens up their NFT marketplace and bring a couple million people to the NFT world (I say 2 million, because thats how many people have signed up). Opensea (the current marketplace has about 500,000 wallets attached to it, so it's going to be huge.

If you can mint JRNY Crypto's nft coming out the end of the month, you're guaranteed to earn a serious extra income...forever.

For about $21K USD you can buy an Alex Becker NFT. These gains will be untouchable.

Obviously, do your own research and this isn't financial advice.


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

Diablo said:


> gold is essentially worthless as well (it has very little practical value), and IMO has broken down as an asset of value in tough times (weve just had the biggest global crisis since WW2 and what did gold do? It went down.). Reality is, when the shit goes down, we aren’t likely to prioritize the need to make gaudy jewelry over other commodities. if you’re planning for an apocalypse, invest in copper or uranium or something useful instead of gold.


The notion of "practical" is relative and many Eastern countries will challenge that statement. Gold is an anti-inflationary measure or hedge and btw, gold prices are currently at all time highs as central bank reserves have been increasing every month since 2009. New banking rules require banks to hold physical gold as opposed to paper trades.

Here's the base case for gold: Global debt levels are currently 285 Trillion dollars (360% of the annual global GDP). Raising interest rates would be catastrophic for a vast majority of countries. The only practical way to create debt relief (other than by defaulting on a loan) is by inflation (controlled inflation). While inflation creeps up (as we are starting to see), institutions and investors will gear towards gold. in theory. nothing is for sure that's for sure!


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

Alex said:


> While inflation creeps up (as we are starting to see), institutions and investors will gear towards gold.


I don't think you're wrong that some investors will put money into gold as a "safe haven". It's also true that gold is near all time highs, but that is an illusion to some degree imo. If you look at the inflation adjusted gold prices, we're nowhere near 1980s prices. Also taking into account that the purchasing power of the USD is about 2-3% from about 100 years ago. If gold was a simple inflation hedge, it should be valued at 50x what it was 100 years ago.


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

^ I agree with that, though I don't think gold is as much of an inflation hedge as it may have been at one point.

But when the recession hits us within the next couple of years (some believe it may be a depression of '29 proportions), I think gold will hold its own against crypto currencies. Some might not be even able to afford phone plans or Internet during that time, and gold is there and tangible as a backup. Technology can be tenuous and unreliable, gold is not.


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## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

I thought the 'value' in bitcoin was the ledger, and the ledger was maintained by people doing the calculations in exchange for coins. That is the only source for the coins. Then the miners found someone to exchange real $$ for them, creating a market. Now the $ value of the coins is set in the market with demand driven by the sense it will increase in value not because some large financial industry needs it. That's my understanding of it. 
Imho any cryptocurrency that isn't limited in size and doesn't have a secure ledger is simply virtual tulip bulbs.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

tomee2 said:


> I thought the 'value' in bitcoin was the ledger, and the ledger was maintained by people doing the calculations in exchange for coins. That is the only source for the coins. Then the miners found someone to exchange real $$ for them, creating a market. Now the $ value of the coins is set in the market with demand driven by the sense it will increase in value not because some large financial industry needs it. That's my understanding of it.
> Imho any cryptocurrency that isn't limited in size and doesn't have a secure ledger is simply virtual tulip bulbs.


I can't think of any that doesn't have a limited circulating supply. I just went and doubled checked a couple on coingecko that I thought maybe, but nah.

If by ledger you mean records (and not crypto ledger wallets), then that's the blockchain. If you go to etherscan.io, everything is accounted for as far as I know. Waaaay too many coins for be to say definitely.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

Alex said:


> The notion of "practical" is relative and many Eastern countries will challenge that statement. Gold is an anti-inflationary measure or hedge and btw, gold prices are currently at all time highs as central bank reserves have been increasing every month since 2009. New banking rules require banks to hold physical gold as opposed to paper trades.
> 
> Here's the base case for gold: Global debt levels are currently 285 Trillion dollars (360% of the annual global GDP). Raising interest rates would be catastrophic for a vast majority of countries. The only practical way to create debt relief (other than by defaulting on a loan) is by inflation (controlled inflation). While inflation creeps up (as we are starting to see), institutions and investors will gear towards gold. in theory. nothing is for sure that's for sure!


I used “practical” in the trust sense, you cant eat gold. You can’t fuel your houses or cars with gold. You can’t kill your enemies with gold. it is of limited value in communications. And so on. It’s value is entirely arbitrary and superfluous and largely historical. Any material could have been designated for the same function that gold has/had. Gold is whimsical. for example, in a precious metals microcosm, we saw a few years ago how golds value can be subjective, when in the secondary market for Rolex watches, 2 tone (ie gold and stainless steel) variants of models were valued lower than all-stainless steel versions of the same watch even though the gold models originally costed more. gold has no intrinsic value, it is entirely dependent on someone wanting it. Which, IMO isnt different from crypto, NFTs or 59 Les Paul’s.

not sure which central bank you are referring to.…Canada has no gold reserves at this point.
while some countries have increased their gold reserves, others have decreased it. who’s right? Time will tell. once the pandemic settles down, I expect golds demand to decline. Our banks aren’t stupid, canadas banking system is exemplary. I expect others to follow suit.

full disclosure, I hold shares in 3 Canadian gold producers. I hope they do well (they haven’t the last year). But I don’t see it as a superior commodity to anything, it’s just as susceptible to market manipulation as oil.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

Adcandour said:


> That's very safe and really good portfolio for diversification. Not sure why that puckbag, Mark Cuban, said that he wants the Doge coin to stay stable (and it is). *Shib is the newer Doge*. I guess it makes it easier for him to accept it at the NBA games. Not sure what team he owns...
> 
> Re: Teenagers - Gaming NFTs are going to make people millionaires now. It's like staring a $5000 bitcoin in the face and saying, "nah", if you don't figure out how to 'ape' in.


This is my big concern with crypto…too many alt coins, flavours of the month etc. That makes it confusing and unstable for investment. I don’t see how they can coexist and still be functional If exchange is the goal. There needs to be consolidation.


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

^ It's only a matter of time IMO. The crypto breakout reminds of all the dot com companies of the late 90s. Save for a few, they all disappeared/consolidated after the crash at that time.


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## Diablo (Dec 20, 2007)

FatStrat2 said:


> ^ It's only a matter of time IMO. The crypto breakout reminds of all the dot com companies of the late 90s. Save for a few, they all disappeared/consolidated after the crash at that time.


Reminds me of another failed industry…the over saturation of cannabis companies.


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## Mikev7305 (Jan 6, 2020)

So Bitcoin is now the 8th highest asset by market cap. Surpassing Facebook and now a stone's throw from silver. 









Assets ranked by Market Cap - CompaniesMarketCap.com


Ranking the world's top assets by market cap, including precious metals, public companies, cryptocurrencies, ETFs




companiesmarketcap.com





Ether is also at it's all time high this morning as well.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Diablo said:


> This is my big concern with crypto…too many alt coins, flavours of the month etc. That makes it confusing and unstable for investment. I don’t see how they can coexist and still be functional If exchange is the goal. There needs to be consolidation.


Ignore the flavours of the month...unless they have a good idea you believe in and an amazing team behind them.

The best way to look at it is that there are only a few major ecosystems. So, Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, Polkadot, Solana, Fantom, Polygon, and Cosmos....Within each ecosystem there will be coins that do the same thing. Here is the polkadot ecosystem (posted below) broken down into the sections that most ecosystems have. So, it seems overwhelming at first, but it really isn't.

The way the greatest investors navigate is by realizing that when bitcoin pumps, the central coins (named aboved) will soon follow. Then it trickles down the ecosystems by marketcap size. As you get to the smaller caps, the ROI increases significantly. For example, Bitcoin has made it's move and now all the majors are starting to follow (I believe too quickly, because a lot of people know about this trickle effect). In the Solana ecosystem, degenerates (such as myself) will put their money in Solana and then move it down the ranks. The bottom of Solana being Sunny Aggregator (I've been in for about a month or so and have already removed my initial investment and will let the rest ride.

Rinse. Repeat. Until the bear market. Then reposition yourself for the next bitcoin halving and the other textbook market moves that seem to move in a very specific pattern.

Another thing to keep in mind is the narratives. For example - when everyone is hating on Ethereum for it's gas prices, Binance (BNB) will start to go up.

The upcoming bear market will be all about gaming and NFTs for gaming. I have already prepared and aligned myself for it while people are just starting to bring up bitcoin on guitar forums 

If you have Bitcoin, you should stake/lend it (I can pm you where, if you like) for a 30% to 40% return. Why not?

DYOR; Not financial advice.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

FatStrat2 said:


> ^ It's only a matter of time IMO. The crypto breakout reminds of all the dot com companies of the late 90s. Save for a few, they all disappeared/consolidated after the crash at that time.


In your opinion? In everyone with half a brain's opinion.

As is with regular business, things will pump, fall, and disappear and the strong will survive.

I don't want anyone hear thinking they're geniuses because they told us that the market will crash. IT WILL. If you can take your profits before it does, THEN you're smart.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

@Diablo


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## Paul Running (Apr 12, 2020)

It's probably going to get even more complicated, it's human nature. How long did the keep it simple fad last. Bitcoin is following the complexity-bias syndrome.








Complexity Bias: Why We Prefer Complicated to Simple - Farnam Street


Complexity bias is a logical fallacy that leads us to give undue credence to complex concepts. Faced with two competing hypotheses, we are likely to choose the most complex one.




fs.blog


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Paul Running said:


> It's probably going to get even more complicated, it's human nature. How long did the keep it simple fad last. Bitcoin is following the complexity-bias syndrome.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Awesome info. Extremely grateful that you posted it

I ike this:

_Complexity bias_ is our tendency to look at something that is easy to understand, or look at it when we are in a state of confusion, and view it as having many parts that are difficult to understand.

and this:

Most geniuses—especially those who lead others—prosper not by deconstructing intricate complexities but by exploiting unrecognized simplicities.”

I would add that most people with an open mind and a willingness to learn (via baby steps). I'm not a genius by any stretch (in fact, I believe I have a learning disability), but I still exploit the simplicity of cryptocurrencies and NFTs.


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

Paul Running said:


> It's probably going to get even more complicated, it's human nature. How long did the keep it simple fad last. Bitcoin is following the complexity-bias syndrome.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I might be alone on this, but I think Bitcoin is far easier to understand than our fiat monetary system. I'm pretty versed in economics and the way "money" works is baffling. From it's creation (printer goes brrrrr = out of thin air) or the difficulty in sending money, especially across borders (SWIFT etc) doesn't make sense in many ways. Bitcoin is completely transparent, has a hardcoded supply, a scheduled distribution/release and a one size fits all send/receive protocol. I'm currently selling a watch to a guy in Mexico and the cheapest, fastest option for purchase is in fact crypto.


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## tomee2 (Feb 27, 2017)

Adcandour said:


> I can't think of any that doesn't have a limited circulating supply. I just went and doubled checked a couple on coingecko that I thought maybe, but nah.
> 
> If by ledger you mean records (and not crypto ledger wallets), then that's the blockchain. If you go to etherscan.io, everything is accounted for as far as I know. Waaaay too many coins for be to say definitely.


I thought there were some that weren't guaranteed to be limited? As in the operators could just add more coins when they wanted. I guess these might simply be fake or fraudulent coins not based blockchain?

yes I meant blockchain when I said ledger, easier for me to remember it. But I think the analogy that it's more like multiple ledgers, and I fully copy your ledger and you copy mine if we exchange bitcoins. Maybe? Or something like that. Hence the calculations grow increasingly difficult as more coins are produced and exchanged.

A large power plant on northern New York is using about 60% of its generating capacity to mine bitcoins.









Bitcoin-mining power plant raises ire of environmentalists


A bitcoin operation in central New York has taken over a power plant to find cheap energy for currency mining in a move that has alarmed environmentalists




abcnews.go.com





So there are predictions for a coming bitcoin energy crunch. Can you imagine all of the tar sands oil never leaving AB but instead being used to generate electricity on site to make coins? However, that might all disappear if quantum computing works out to be true.

Keep posting on this..I'm slowly learning about it. I'm not ready to buy any, I'd rather invest in lake shore property or something I can walk on.


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## Paul Running (Apr 12, 2020)

Adcandour said:


> I would add that most people with an open mind and a willingness to learn (via baby steps). I'm not a genius by any stretch (in fact, I believe I have a learning disability), but I still exploit the simplicity of cryptocurrencies and NFTs.


I believe that we all have some activity that we demonstrate as genius, it may only be one activity but I believe that it is there; sometimes we don't realise it ourselves and that's when somebody else points it out, like your partner.


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## Paul Running (Apr 12, 2020)

Those Bitcoin mining machines can become rather expensive. You could see an ROI very quickly. I was looking at one, priced at $32K basic.


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## allthumbs56 (Jul 24, 2006)

Paul Running said:


> Those Bitcoin mining machines can become rather expensive. You could see an ROI very quickly. I was looking at one, priced at $32K basic.


Does the fact that the machine is sold for actual dollars tell us anything?


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

allthumbs56 said:


> Does the fact that the machine is sold for actual dollars tell us anything?


Not really. There are many companies that accept crypto for purchase, Newegg is one of the largest online retailers of computers/electronics and they accept bitcoin. It's just easier to conceptualize goods in terms of dollars because we're used to that scale. Kind of like saying its 57 degrees Fahrenheit instead of 14 degrees Celsius or 0.6 miles instead of 1 km. Or more to the point, 60,700 rupees instead of $1000 CDN.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

Paul Running said:


> I believe that we all have some activity that we demonstrate as genius, it may only be one activity but I believe that it is there; sometimes we don't realise it ourselves and that's when somebody else points it out, like your partner.


I need a new partner


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## Alex (Feb 11, 2006)

Diablo said:


> I used “practical” in the trust sense, you cant eat gold. You can’t fuel your houses or cars with gold. You can’t kill your enemies with gold.


nor can you eat bitcoin or paper currency. It's an instrument like many others that eliminates true bartering. The system is not perfect that's one certainty and it's quite complicated and mostly over my head. The old joke with gold is digging a hole (mining) to put it back in a hole (vault).


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## Paul Running (Apr 12, 2020)

allthumbs56 said:


> Does the fact that the machine is sold for actual dollars tell us anything?


In the beginning you could mine Bitcoin with just a regular PC...not anymore, you require powerful computing resources to compete with the other miners...unless you have the highest performing equipment now, you pretty well have to join a pool...high-performance GPUs are not cheap.


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## laristotle (Aug 29, 2019)

Add the electricity bill to that as well. lol


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

Once crypto currencies consolidate after all the upcoming carnage, it will more than likely be the future - at least for G7 countries. Only thing is, you don't need a computer, passwords, encryption, Internet, electricity, inaccessible mining processes, etc. to trade gold. There are still billions of people who don't have access to all that.


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

FatStrat2 said:


> Once crypto currencies consolidate after all the upcoming carnage, it will more than likely be the future - at least for G7 countries. Only thing is, you don't need a computer, passwords, encryption, Internet, electricity, inaccessible mining processes, etc. to trade gold. There are still billions of people who don't have access to all that.


I'm sure you've heard of El Salvador making bitcoin legal tender. It's certainly not a G7 country but this quote from a Forbes article is very interesting:

"Remarkably, in just one month, there are more Salvadorans with bitcoin wallets than traditional bank accounts."

If they can do it (and they did) it will be easy for any nation to follow suit. Anecdotally, from years of volunteering at a local soup kitchen I can tell you that people, even very poor/homeless people, are more likely to have cell phone than a bank account. This is sufficient to have a bitcoin wallet and they can now participate in economic transactions where they could not before.

Full article here.


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

Possibly, but that still doesn't acknowledge that billions still don't have Internet access nor a cell. Easier said than done. It's also a good bet that every one of those billions know the value of gold.


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## Adcandour (Apr 21, 2013)

tomee2 said:


> I thought there were some that weren't guaranteed to be limited? As in the operators could just add more coins when they wanted. I guess these might simply be fake or fraudulent coins not based blockchain?
> 
> yes I meant blockchain when I said ledger, easier for me to remember it. But I think the analogy that it's more like multiple ledgers, and I fully copy your ledger and you copy mine if we exchange bitcoins. Maybe? Or something like that. Hence the calculations grow increasingly difficult as more coins are produced and exchanged.
> 
> ...


Sorry, just saw this....

There very well may be; I could probably find something in 10 or 20 minutes if I look hard enough.... I know that USDT (tether) the stablecoin that is supposed to be backed by a USD for every token just got fined for NOT doing that. 

In crypto, the mining has converted from Proof of Work (bitcoin and ethereum's method of mining) to proof of Stake. Ethereum is working on the change (and has been for a while) from PoW to PoS. Proof of Stake completely eliminates the need for heavy use of electricity.

They are trying to do the same with Bitcoin. Not sure how that will play out. Eventually, I think they should just force them to stop. It'll make it more valuable anyway. When I was mining ethereum it was $60 - So, I was losing my shit because it was costing me $4000/month in electricity (the graphics cards were able to heat my 1800sq.ft shop easily). I can dig up a pic of the rig, if interested. 

I have a builder friend of mine who uses mining rigs to heat the homes he is building through the winter, haha. Also, I heard somewhere that a city in BC is heating the whole town with the mining heat! Don't ask me how.


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## colchar (May 22, 2010)

After reading through this, it still doesn't make any fucking sense whatsoever:









How Bitcoin Works


Miners, hashes, keys, cold storage, blocks... it can get confusing. Learn more about it all so that you can understand how Bitcoin works beyond a wallet.




www.investopedia.com


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## crann (May 10, 2014)

FatStrat2 said:


> Possibly, but that still doesn't acknowledge that billions still don't have Internet access nor a cell.


There's far more adults worldwide who have a cellphone than those who have a bank account. Worldbank estimates about 69% of adults worldwide have a bank account (2018), whereas estimates of adults who own a cellphone being about 90% (2021). There's also this that shows what % of adults by country have a bank account, mobile phone or internet access. In almost every instance, those who have a mobile phone or internet access is far higher than bank account. This difference is much greater in developing countries. Phones and internet are really expensive in Canada, but these are dirt cheap almost everywhere else.


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## FranciscoHammond (6 mo ago)

Working in a team will increase your chances of success. When I first decided to buy cryptocurrency, my friends and I analyzed the whole market. It's easier to collect data when there are five of you. Also, many of us went to economics college so that we could pinpoint successful projects. When we chose cryptocurrency, we paid attention to good forex indicators to make a safe buy. I heard many stories of people giving up their money but not being given cryptocurrency.


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## BlueRocker (Jan 5, 2020)

I'm sure Francisco will be reaching out to potential investors soon to join his team. Because everyone joins a guitar forum and makes their first post about crypto.


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## laristotle (Aug 29, 2019)

FranciscoHammond said:


> Working in a team will increase your chances of success. When I first decided to buy cryptocurrency, my friends and I analyzed the whole market.











Crypto market continues to fall in Q2 - The Cryptonomist


CoinGecko's new report shows a 55% drop in the market for major digital currencies in Q2 of 2022




en.cryptonomist.ch


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## WCGill (Mar 27, 2009)

Buy the dip, never catch a falling knife, you choose.


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## FatStrat2 (Apr 7, 2021)

Yeah, Hammond's 1st post is just a selling bot that reignited this thread, but that's fine in this case.

I plan to buy Bitcoin when it falls to $12K or thereabouts this year. Our country's fearless leader made it pretty obvious it's the right thing to do.


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## bentwire17 (Sep 7, 2011)

In the Wall Street crash in the 30’s , gold got real popular fast. What did the government do ?
They basically outlawed it !
“The house always wins”!
I’m not very hopeful on Bitcoin/ Crypto as the government can bury it multiple ways.
If you get up to speed with the G20 announcements, your going full digital currency ( no cash) whether you like it or not!
Thanks Justin.


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## laristotle (Aug 29, 2019)

bentwire17 said:


> Thanks Justin.


And Klaus, Bill and the WEF.


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